headline inflation may not tell the whole story

headline inflation may not tell the whole story

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There are different kinds of statistics, and each can be used to tell its own story.rise inflation make this change more apparent. Changes in the consumer price index – the UK’s main measure – are designed to capture changes in the value of money. The CPI has done less to highlight the specific challenges facing poor households. Soon, though, access to digital data offers the prospect of generating statistics that paint a more complete picture of the rising cost of living and directly represent the experiences of more people.

Anti-poverty activists have put statistical measurement of the cost of living on the political agenda Jack Monroe. Monroe is known for her small budget recipes, bashing the media Because focusing only on the average experience – ignoring the pressure on the poorest. Their spending power has been squeezed more severely, she said, as prices for the most basic and low-cost food items rose more sharply.

Monroe has a point. Generalized statements about the cost of living can be made from the main indicator, the CPI, but it tends to overrepresent the experiences of wealthier households. Inflation is an economy-wide number that captures the purchasing power of the pound by tracking how it is spent over time. Wealthier households account for a disproportionate share of total spending in the UK, so headline figures are always more relevant to their buying patterns.

It is clear from the CPI that the cost of necessities is increasing.rise April energy price cap This will enable energy suppliers to start passing on sharp increases in wholesale market prices to consumers. While this may benefit the viability of energy companies, it could be disastrous for the poorest households. Unlike many of its European counterparts, the UK government has yet to unveil any plans to help the poorest.One delayed until The planned increase in National Insurance will bring more benefits to wealthier groups.

Office of National Statistics to reopen on Friday Publish experimental datapause Some key prices were temporarily unavailable early in the pandemic – suggesting prices in UK stores rose at “similar” levels for both poorer and wealthier households; costs were also rising rapidly in some more luxury categories. But, albeit with different weights, the price points used to arrive at these numbers are the same items used to calculate the CPI—choose items that represent purchases by the average household, not the poorest households.

However, in 2017, the Digital Economy Act allowed the ONS to request access to data held by certain businesses. Soon, it will use this ability to collect prices directly from the checkout. This will provide statistical agencies with hundreds of millions of data points to track changes in food prices, including items often bought by the poorest people in society. Over time, with ingenuity, the wealth of data obtained from this and other sources may make it possible to link government payments and services to indices that more closely represent the actual experience of inflation.

Whether that possibility is realized will depend on whether politicians want to ease cost-of-living pressures or save money. Unfortunately, they don’t have a good track record in this area. UK student loan interest, inflation-linked bonds and train fares are all linked to a discredited retail price index. Hopefully this time is different. But while statistics can be used to tell more stories, that alone is unlikely to stop politicians from choosing only their favorites.



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