go through John HelmerHe is the longest-serving foreign correspondent in Russia and the only Western correspondent to directly command his own bureau, independent of a single country or commercial relationship. Helmer has also served as a professor of political science and an advisor to heads of government in Greece, the United States, and Asia. He was the first and only member of the U.S. presidential administration (Jimmy Carter) to gain a foothold in Russia.Originally Posted in dance with bears

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken revealed publicly in Geneva on Friday, January 21 that he would not negotiate a no-war deal with the Russians because he could not. The Russians have understood this. by the French and Germans; and several senior officials in the Biden administration.

The evidence of Blinken’s incompetence is in what he said.

It was during the last world war, when American policymakers had little intelligence about the thoughts and intentions of their German counterparts, that a group of American sociologists were hired by what the Pentagon then called the War Department to do what was called the Content analyze German propaganda.One of the sociologists, Russian immigrant Nathan Wrights, went on to apply the same method to Soviet publications to reveal what Wrights said Politburo. That was in 1951. U.S. negotiators used it immediately during the two-year Korean War armistice negotiations that began in July of that year. By then Wrights had already made a sequel, Bolshevism studies. Both are paid for and published by RAND, a think tank created in 1945 by the U.S. Air Force, Douglas Aircraft Company, and the War Department.

Since then, the method has not been used by U.S. government officials, at least not publicly by the RAND Corporation or any U.S. sociologist.

When using the RAND method to analyze what Blinken said to the US media after his meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, it showed that Blinken had no intention of negotiating a non-aggression pact with the Russians on any terms. According to the scientific method of dealing with the enemy devised by the best and brightest Americans, it is now clear from Blinken’s own words that he could not understand what the Russians were telling him. Behind these words, there is only one obsessive idea – to attack, punish, destroy Russia.

The State Department has released a transcript of Blinken’s statement and his answers to questions at its meeting. press conference.

source: https://www.state.gov/
The State Department did not specify when it would be released.Watch Blinken read the written script for the first 6 1/2 minutes of 29 1/2 minutes briefing.

Blinken’s meeting with Lavrov lasted only 90 minutes. On January 10, the meeting between their deputy Wendy Sherman and Sergei Ryabkov had been going on for nearly eight hours.has been analyzed here.

Lavrov explained at a parallel press conference in Geneva: “In principle, being on time is not a bad omen. We planned an hour and a half meeting. It was clear what we were going to discuss. There was no need to replicate this January 10 Everything that was said at the Russia-US talks in Geneva on 12 January and at the meeting of the Russia-NATO Council on 12 January this year.”

“We heard the first reaction from the United States (so far verbally) to what was discussed at our representative level in these two formats. As requested by the United States when we convened this meeting, the reaction was preliminary. We were warned about this A point. This was accompanied by clarification questions posed to us, the answers to which would help Washington (A. Blinken told me this on the phone) to prepare the written draft of our treaty with the United States and agreement with NATO Reply. That’s what happened today.” Read Lavrov’s comments full.

The transcript of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs was released on January 21 at 19:36 Moscow time. Source: https://mid.ru/
Lavrov spoke impromptu; unlike Blinken, he did not read the prepared script or notes.

Lavrov said it was too early to “look carefully” at Blinken’s intentions or the U.S. government’s plans — Lavrov distinguishes them — for war in Europe. “I can’t say we’re on the right or wrong path. We’ll see that when we get a ‘written’ response from the U.S. to all the points we’re proposing.”

“This is not a negotiation,” Blinken declared, “but a candid exchange of concerns and ideas.” In terms of content analysis, reporters’ questions and extraneous editorial material have been removed; Blinken’s text has 3,359 words. These have been moved into document files where regular text search analysis has been performed.

In Blinken’s text, the word “exchange” occurs only once. When Blinken uses the word “idea,” he means his own. The word appears five times – four of which refer to Blinken’s ideas, and none to Lavrov. The word “concern” occurs 23 times and is one of Blinken’s most frequently used substantive terms. He used it 7 times in Russia; 8 times in the United States, and 8 times neutrally referring to the mutual or reciprocal concerns of the two sides.

In defining what he meant by “concerned,” Blinken used the word “security” 15 times—eight times referring to what he called the security of the United States or its allies; five times neutral; and just two times Russian security. “Action” Blinken used frequently – 15 mentions. Blinken has signaled U.S. action only twice, and only once was neutral. The vast majority of “actions”, 12 in all, are Russian in Blinken’s vocabulary: they are either “military” or “destabilizing”, “escalating”, “aggressive”, “threatening” , or “challenge or undermine peace and security not only in Ukraine, but in the whole of Europe and the world”.

“Defense” was used 8 times, but only against the United States or its allies, mainly Ukraine. Blinken did not acknowledge that Russia had any “concerns” or was taking any “actions” to maintain its “security” or engage in self-defense. “Interest” is a term Blinken used four times, but only in Russia.

“Aggressive” appeared 15 times during Blinken’s nearly 30-minute briefing; minus the time for reporters to ask questions, Blinken used “aggressive” every 1.5 minutes, and only for Russia. In Blinken’s view, the republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine were not attacked by Ukraine; there was no civil war; there was no legitimate Ukraine against the Kiev regime. Beyond Ukraine, Blinken added, “Russia has a vast playbook of aggression without military action, including cyberattacks, paramilitary tactics and other means of aggressively advancing its interests without overt use of military action.”

“Military” (x7) is mostly Blinken’s affiliation to Russia. “Invasion” (x6) and “Attack” (x2) are entirely in Russian. The “response” (x5) is exactly what the US does, and it’s almost always “joined” (x4).

Source: https://mid.ru/

In the draft non-aggression pact between Russia and the United States, submitted at December 17, Russia’s “core security interest” is to stop and then withdraw the US deployment of nuclear weapons to Russia’s sea and land borders under the cover of NATO. Blinken didn’t mention the word “missile,” and the only nuclear weapon he mentioned was Iran’s nuclear program. Even so, Blinken became the responsibility of the Russians. “We hope that Russia will use the influence and relationship it has with Iran to give Iran a sense of urgency, and again, if we can’t do that because Iran refuses to take on the necessary obligations, we’ll take a different path to deal with it. The danger posed by Iran’s reactivation of its nuclear program.” This is what Blinken refers to as Israel’s plan for an offensive against Iran. He seemed to agree with that.

Blinken ignored the basic points that Russia made in the draft U.S. and NATO treaties.He has fired Sherman talks with Ryabkov on reducing the threat of nuclear war in Europe and between Russia and the United States.

Instead, Blinken’s choice of words meant more war on the Ukrainian front. The only “terms” (x8) he mentioned were not the ones he was prepared to “negotiate” (x1) with Russia, but “the terms of our assistance to Ukraine’s defense, as far as our work is concerned” NATO is doing what is necessary Prepare to further strengthen the alliance and continue to work with our allies and partners to define and refine the outsized financial, economic and other sanctions on Russia. “

Tested during the two hot and cold wars, the RAND method for measuring adversary intentions predicted this for Blinken—he wanted to go to war with Russia; he had no idea of ??any options.