Ive here. The United Nations assumes that by 2050, farms around the world will need to feed 2 billion people. I suspect Mother Nature/Jack will dent those numbers.

By Dana Nuccitelli, research coordinator for the nonprofit Citizens Climate Lobby, environmental scientist, author, and author of “Climatology and Pseudoscience,” and 10 peer-reviewed studies related to climate change.Originally Posted in Yale Climate Connection

Nearly 10% of the planet’s 8 billion people are already malnourished, 3 billion people lack a healthy diet, and the pressure on the land and water resources that farmers depend on has reached a “tipping point.”Two billion mouths to be fed by 2050, warns a new report From the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

Currently, farmers have been able to increase agricultural productivity by irrigating more land and applying higher amounts of fertilizers and pesticides. But these practices are unsustainable: They erode and degrade soil, pollute and deplete water resources, and shrink the world’s forests, the report said.The FAO report discusses some important climate change impact, such as changes in rainfall distribution, land suitability for certain crops, the spread of insects and other pests, and shortened growing seasons in areas affected by more severe droughts. While not the only source of obstacles facing global agriculture, the report makes clear that climate change is further stressing agricultural systems and exacerbating global food production challenges.

The report also offers hope that the problem will be solved: the trend of water degradation can be reversed by moving to smart planning and coordination of sustainable agricultural practices and deploying new innovative technologies. More sustainable agriculture can also help combat climate change: for example, the report notes that using soils more wisely could help sequester some of the greenhouse gases currently emitted by agricultural activities.

Dramatic changes in climate will require regions adjust crops They grow. For example, the report predicts that many cereal production may have to move northward to Canada and northern Eurasia. Growing coffee in Brazil and North Africa may be more difficult, but it may become easier in East Africa. Climate change “could present opportunities for a wide variety of rainfed crops, especially in tropical and subtropical regions.” For regions “where climate has become insignificant for current staple crops and niche crops, there are annual and perennial alternatives” Tree crops, livestock, and soil and water management options.”

The report recommends global and regional exchange of seeds and germplasm, and investment in developing crops that can withstand changes in temperature, salinity, wind and evaporation.

The changes will not be easy, but they may be necessary to avoid widespread hunger and other disasters, the report said.

Extensive land and water degradation

Over the past 20 years, the global population has grown from just over 6 billion to nearly 8 billion, an increase of more than 25 percent. During this period, the amount of land devoted to growing crops has only increased by 4%, as farmers have been able to meet the growing demand for food by substantially increasing the productivity of each acre of farmland. For example, they do this by increasing the use of diesel-fueled machinery, fertilizers and pesticides.

But these practices come at a cost. “Human-induced degradation affects 34 percent (1.66 billion hectares) of agricultural land,” FAO reports. “Treatment of soils with inorganic fertilizers to increase or maintain yields has significant adverse effects on soil health and contributes to runoff and drainage of freshwater Pollution. “

This degradation is especially severe on irrigated farmland. Irrigation is critical to meeting food needs because it produces two to three times as much food per acre as rainfed farmland. But irrigation also increases the runoff of fertilizers and pesticides that contaminate soil and groundwater.

The FAO also reports that globally, agriculture accounts for 72 percent of all surface and groundwater withdrawals, mostly for irrigation, which is depleting groundwater aquifers in many regions. In the past decade alone, groundwater abstraction for irrigated agriculture has increased by around 20% globally.

Likewise, 13 percent of the world’s soil, including 34 percent of agricultural land, has been degraded in quality. This degradation is caused by factors such as overuse of chemical fertilizers, soil compaction and erosion due to overgrazing by livestock, deforestation and reduced water resources.

Deforestation trends are a relative bright spot in the FAO report. The global forest area has declined by about 1 percent (47 million hectares) over the past decade, but this is a marked improvement from the nearly 2 percent decrease (78 million hectares) in the 1990s. At international climate talks in Glasgow in November 2021, 141 countries covering 91% of the world’s forest area agreed to halt and reverse forest loss and land degradation by 2030. Of course, it remains to be seen how many countries deliver on these promises.

Climate change is exacerbating food system collapse

Climate change is making weather more extreme and unreliable, exacerbating challenges for farmers. Extreme heat can stress crops and farm workers while increasing the evaporation of water from the soil and transpiration from plants, thereby expanding agricultural water demand. Here, it’s not all bad news: Agricultural productivity is expected to increase in currently relatively cold regions, but declines in hotter and drier regions, especially as climate change exacerbates droughts.

Farmers, like everyone else, need to adapt to a changing climate, and making those adaptations can be expensive.For example, as the major or sole producer of many of the country’s fruits, vegetables and nuts, California effectively serves as the American Garden. But climate change is exacerbating drought and water scarcity in the state, and farmers are struggling to adapt. About 80 percent of the world’s almonds are grown in California, generating $6 billion in annual revenue, but almonds are a water-intensive crop.Therefore, some farmers were forced to Tear up their lucrative almond orchards. It’s a clear reminder that “fitting in” sounds easy on paper, but can sometimes be painful and costly in practice.

Farmers and planners will need Io Adapt

However, adaptation is necessary in the face of a projected 50 percent increase in food demand by 2050 (including a doubling in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa), widespread degradation of land and water quality, and climate change. The FAO report recommends four areas for action to continue to meet growing global food demand.

• first, adopting inclusive land and water governance by improving land use planning to guide land and water allocation and promote sustainable resource management.
• second, implementing integrated solutions at scale, such as helping farmers use available resources more efficiently while minimizing associated adverse environmental impacts and building resilience to climate change.
• third, Embrace innovative technologies and management, such as remote sensing services; open access to data and information on crops, natural resources and climate conditions; and improve rainwater harvesting and soil water retention.
• fourth, Investing in long-term sustainable land, soil and water management; restoring degraded ecosystems; and data and information management for farmers.

Fortunately, sustainable agricultural practices can also play a dual role as a climate solution. The FAO reports that 31 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions come from agri-food systems.sustainable agricultural practices such as regenerative agriculture Diesel-fueled machinery could be reduced and reliance on pesticides that pollute soil and water, while increasing carbon stored in cultivated soils.

solve these multiple problems Requires planning and coordination, the FAO wrote in the report, “data collection needs to be improved”. Again, on the bright side: technologies to improve data collection already exist, and advances in agricultural research have put other solutions within reach. What is needed now is for policymakers and planners to work in coordination with farmers to adopt more sustainable practices and adapt more quickly to a changing climate. So while the food system is currently at a “tipping point,” these more sustainable solutions are all within reach.