Toyota: Timely just means more disruption

Toyota: Timely just means more disruption

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Scarcity can be a sign of exclusivity. Bugatti buyers typically have to wait three years. Now, Japanese automaker Toyota is asking some customers to be equally patient.Potential buyers of new Land Cruisers may have to wait up to four years.

Part of the reason is high demand. The camping boom caused by the pandemic in Japan has dramatically increased demand for sport utility vehicles such as the Land Cruiser.

But Toyota also faces supply chain disruptions. Chip shortages have already led to significant production cuts. A new wave of coronavirus infections has made things worse. Production at many of its Japanese factories has been suspended for several days. Suppliers that have been locked down in Southeast Asia over the past year have seen parts shortages. Expected February production is now a fifth below the guidance given last month.

Toyota is also more vulnerable to disruption because it used to be its biggest advantage and advantage over its global rivals: lean manufacturing. Toyota began inventory control in the 1970s and pioneered “just-in-time” production decades ago.

The strategy, which helps reduce costs and increase efficiency, is based on having as little inventory as possible and relies on frequent, low-volume deliveries of the number of components required for production.

Continued disruptions to global supply chains and rising inflation will now require automakers to do the opposite: stock parts to manage costs. Typically for an automaker of Toyota’s size, the loss of production can be as much as $10 million a day. Savings from just-in-time manufacturing, such as warehouse costs, do not offset these losses.

Toyota shares fell 5% this week, reflecting the looming disruption. Even so, at 10 times forward earnings, that’s a nearly two-thirds premium to peer Volkswagen. The longer its plants stop, the faster the gap should close.

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