Ive here. Our Brexit think tank, spurred by Vlad’s suggestion to launch a raffle to bet on how long Johnson will last, sparked useful commentary. A choice:

Pluto: Kun:

He does seem determined to stick to all his worth and not bother trying to leave with a little dignity. I wonder if the Conservatives are concerned that if he is forced to quit, he’ll go down with him as much as possible.

If nothing else, it’s going to be fun at least.

Colonel Smithers:

I agree it’s a matter of time now…

The main pretenders, Tras and Sunak, are organizing and no longer bother to conceal their intentions. Truss is holding a drink called soda with Liz.

That said, elections leading up to the May election could be disruptive. Would the new leader want to own this mess? Wouldn’t it be better to start the summer with an injured Johnson carrying the can? That said, a fresh face can minimize damage.

I fear Clive is right and the new leader will be on Johnson’s right. Pretenders were playing in that gallery and begging on Tufton Street, the “us” Cummings referred to when he spoke of the organizers behind Johnson. That said, Red Wall’s intake isn’t as keen on austerity.

government:

The new leader will be on Johnson’s right as there is no Johnson’s left in the Conservative Party and I believe only he can even try to get away from what he did (outside of Brexit).

That said, it will mean conflict within the Conservative Party, as the 2019 Northern Enrollment (ex Red Wall) will be very worried about their seats. So if the Conservatives have a new leader in the summer (most likely IMO) they better hope the economy continues later this year/next year or they will disappear. Labour is unlikely to win outright (who knows what will happen to its 10% lead in a year or two), so my bet is that the next UK government is likely to be some kind of coalition.

Both David and Clive agree that the final game cannot be predicted.

But at the risk of doing so, Richard Murphy has a very harsh but persuasive view of the Conservative Party.

By Richard Murphy, Chartered Accountant and Political Economist.he has been The Guardian reports As “anti-poverty activist and tax expert”. He is Professor of Practice in International Political Economy and Director of the UK Taxation Research Centre at City University London.he is a non-executive director Cambridge Econometrics. He is a member of the organization Progressive Economic Forum. Originally Posted in UK tax research

Let’s assume Johnson is going. We all know he is. Then what? That’s the real problem. For now, the answer doesn’t look good. a line…

The truth is that Johnson had to leave not because he failed, but because the Conservative Party chose him, knowing he would fail. It’s not just because of his personal failure. It also has to do with the policies he advertises.

The Conservatives have picked Johnson to deliver Brexit. It’s always a disaster.

They also chose Johnson to take over the country and weaken it, a policy seen in attacks on the NHS, the BBC and other institutions, including those related to law, order and defence, all of which are also at risk.

Behind their support for Johnson is a desire to govern so that the power of the state can be used to extract value for the elites of their choice, at the expense of society as a whole. Covid is just a gift that has always provided cover for this, but it has always been policy.

I think the constant attempts to divide society, immigration, the EU, protests and voting rights, etc. are all parties with the same policy. They are all deliberately designed to foster hatred in some and fear in others.

To use the Conservative Party’s current favourite word, the purpose is implicit. This is to provide cover for their policy of dismantling the state as an effective proxy for the delivery of services, while ensuring that it can still provide unchallenged wealth to the few, thereby fueling resentment.

Call it a massive trickle, if you will.

The entire Cabinet has signed on to the policy. The party’s right wing is angry that the factors promoting social division are not being passed on as quickly to their liking. Moderates have left or been fired. The party is rotten.

In this case, the failure seen is not just about Johnson. He delivered as requested. The only regret of the party is that his carelessness has been found to have been pursuing our and their dual agenda. That’s why he had to go.

But the agenda will not change. Now, this has penetrated into the psyche of the modern Conservative Party. It happens to look a lot like fascism, which doesn’t matter to those who think they might win from pursuing it. Of course, always. That’s how fascists won power.

So whoever replaces Johnson, they will definitely replace soon, makes no difference. Neither Sunak, Truss, Mordaunt, Zaharia, or Outsiders Hunt and Tugendhat, will change that. The far right will demand what Johnson has to offer. The policy will remain the same.

There will still be a hard Brexit line, coronavirus denial, no real action on climate, indifference to the needs of people and services and the people who provide them. Law and order only works when it suits its purpose. Blind eyes still move.

So let’s not pretend Johnson’s end was cause for celebration. He is just another Tory leader who is seen as sacrificial when they are on the larger goal of shattering society and maintaining social checks and balances is the real agenda.

In other words, Johnson is not the problem. He was disposed of simply because he no longer satisfied the needs of a party hungry for power to wantonly destroy all good things.

After Johnson leaves, there will be a Conservative Party on the 10th. In the short term, they will restore the party’s credibility. They will use that power to do hitherto unimaginable things, like leaving us alone to deal with the coronavirus.

They will implicitly say that society does not matter because they will declare that we cannot afford public health. They would imply that if we die, suffer and be hurt because of it, it’s random chance. In any case, they would suggest that survival of the fittest is the goal.

And, more importantly, they would imply that only the fittest survive. Because the Conservatives are, they would suggest, the winner’s party. That is the purpose and object of the policy. The rest can be ignored.

So don’t celebrate because worse things will happen and they will do their best to make sure we can never get rid of them. Gerrymandering and voter exclusion are just the beginning of it all.

If you are young, then you have to worry because you have no financial value unless you were born with a golden spoon firmly in place.

If you are not the richest, worry too, because wealth is a sign of virtue.

The biggest worry is that if you’re sick or disabled and need help managing both, it’s a burden on you as they would mean refusing to fund the NHS.

Also worry if you are old because unless you have wealth to pass on, you are a burden to society. Their care policy bears this out.

If you think differently, come from different places, and think you have the right to celebrate either, worry too, because you are the “other” who must be maligned and abused.

Fear that all the confusion about Johnson masks what’s really happening, which is that the Conservatives are just making sure their agenda can continue to be delivered uninterrupted without being discovered.

Fear that more will happen. More in the future will be the price of you, your loved ones, and everything you hold dear, unless you choose to be the oppressor. Even they live in fear, because that’s how oppression is maintained.

Do not doubt that there is fear behind all this. You can now see it written on Johnson’s face. He realised how ruthless the machine he was part of – the Conservative Party – was now. It was about to spit him out, unwelcome. That’s how they do it.

There is only one thing to do right now, and that is to get rid of this cancer in our society and all that it stands for.

We have to hope politicians can do that. They are what we need. The worst is yet to come before we get them as the Conservatives are still in 10th place. Before they left, the threat was very, very real.

Remember, they got rid of Johnson just to make things worse. It’s a true story they won’t tell. But that’s what’s happening.