Ive here. On the one hand, Tom Neuburger does a good job listing the various forces trying to incite chaos in America, be it violent, destructive, or further institutional capture/knockout. On the other hand, calling it a war is inconsistent with the description he provides. Wars and revolutions usually have two sides, or in the worst case, as in the Balkans, three ethical groups. As we have seen with various jihadists in the Middle East, various interests may have cunning loyalties, or they may be good fighters with clear interests struggling to find reliable bigger dog allies, like the Kurds. But the pattern of warfare is one group against another, even if the composition of those groups is not stable over time.

That said, the next time looked a lot like the one favored by Lord Petyr Baelish: “Chaos is the ladder.” But he died in the end.

I have to beg him to see China differently. Your humble blogger is not a Chinese booster. But China appears to have bought a lot of the loyalty of its citizens from its successful war against the coronavirus (and won acceptance of the disruptions from rising living standards). If our predictions are accurate, China will get more internal support: the West, especially the US and UK, will pay a huge price in chronic diseases and shortened lifespans for their “Let ‘er rip” policies… which will also have an economic cost.

China does have serious problems in feeding its citizens, especially in providing enough drinking water, which has become a scarce resource. China has been expropriating agricultural land in Africa and taking other measures. Whether they prove to be sufficient remains to be seen. Still, because of the extent to which the coronavirus has accelerated the decline of the American empire, China is likely to be the default winner.

Thomas Newberg.Originally Posted in spy of god

I would like to expand on an idea I discussed last year (see “Biden categorizes opposition to ‘capitalism and corporate globalization’ as extreme”), first, because one of its points might be overshadowed by other ideas in the article, and second, to add a picture of what our Rolling Civil War would actually look like.

What is “Rolling Civil War”?

More and more people are looking at today’s fractured America and seeing some kind of civil war coming. The problem is, their depiction of that war has traditional elements and parameters.

The well-armed right imagines citizen militias fighting the police and military in an attempt to take over the country from “liberals who hate liberty.” This photo resembles a rebellion like Mao Zedong in China, Shining Path in Peru, or Simon Bolivar in most of South America. That means armies on the battlefield, or at least guerrilla warfare.

This is not what happened this time. As Joe Biden said: “If you think you need weapons to fight the government, you need the F-15 and maybe some nukes.”

Neither the rebellious left nor the rebellious right. The following explains why the actual civil war that has begun has different forms. Mainly because of the efforts of the Democratic Party and its professional leaders to preserve the status quo, the left has been led so badly. Lack of leadership by left-wing establishments, it is (wrongly) led by right-wing establishments, but not only by them. Here is a list of possible participants in the rolling civil war. Note that many of these groups are already “activated”:

• Sanders left, mostly peaceful
• black bloc leftists, mainly not
• Boogaloo type people with revolutionary intentions and violence
• Boogaloo type They have no revolutionary intentions and are violent
• street gang want to screw people up
• Policemen, hoping to “let their RW ??freak flag fly”
• actual criminal Who sees a way to benefit from civil unrest (thieves, some organized, etc.)
• participants from NatSec status (undercover cops, agent provocateurs) who want to use their own destruction to increase their authority
• inspired person Republicans and right-wing establishments (overlaps with Boogaloos and similar trouble-seekers) do what the security state is doing, incite to undermine Republican electoral interests

This “war” includes more than just street action. Various resistances contributed to it.One general strike, especially when accompanied by other acts of obstruction, are always part of civil war-style defiance.

In fact, it is better to involve the entire population in the war and not just the guerrilla cadres – a better illustration of the situations that require resistance, that is. Cadre resistance can be more successful (think coups) even if it is not well supported.

As I said above, the war has begun. Initial indications were political – Obama’s two-faced “yes we can” which immediately became “no, I won’t”; 2016 Sanders-led rebellion; 2020 deserted by Sanders Rebellion; yes, the chaos of January 6, it was a manifestation of one of many things.

For a long time, we have been in a pre-revolutionary state. We are watching the “pre” part slowly disappear.

What’s coming and why

The billowing civil war brewing in this country is a chaotic, poorly led, ideologically mixed event with many elements, skepticism as expected, against all the ways big money has tormented the majority, almost the entire country.

Most professional classes, those in the top 10% but below the top 1%, are immune to these impulses. They still live happily ever after, and the world still watches them the same way it watched their mother and grandmother in 1955.

For example, they are largely unaware that police violence against the black, brown, and poor among us is systemic and cannot be solved by hiring better apples to replace bad ones. Cops don’t want better apples – meaning, cops will take bad cops to court for their crimes. That better apple was hit in the back.

A rolling civil war in all its manifestations is the new national security posture concentrated opposition – Cheered again by the Resistance and MSNBC Liberals, which inevitably hurt their interests, and regretted it after it was too late.

where are we today?

As things stand today, anything is possible, good outcomes and bad outcomes. Sadly, bad things seem more likely.

Biden is right: If you think you need weapons to fight the government, you need the F-15, and maybe some nukes.According to the folks at Breaking Points, the only way the rebellious right will come to power is through their treacherous pro-corporate elected and appointed officials, like Amy Coney Barrett who was brought to court, Not to start a culture war, but to Ensuring and enhancing corporate strength. Obamacare, the bane of cultural rights, still exists — even Coney Barrett defends it — but Goldman Sachs defends at all costs And from all sides of the so-called split court.

If the rebellious right does take power (as it tries to do), the rebellious left will (or certainly should) take to the streets, the war continues, the government backs the right with ugly power, and the non-right backs the people to fight it, as As we are seeing today, the population is divided. Opposing the next Trumpist president will be partisan chic — or so it should be.

The only way for a rebellious left to gain power is through an almost completely closed political system. The first modern opportunity came in 2008 with Barack Obama’s two-faced “hope and change” campaign.but he was never that guy. he always This guy instead. The second modern opportunity is the 2016 and 2020 Sanders campaigns, both times ruthlessly crushed by professional Democrats who then disguised his ideas as 2020 sales pitches. (And, I’m sure, he was innocent of letting them do it.)

The left will take to the streets to take power only if: (a) a firm leader emerges (Sanders won’t hand the sword to the next Joe Biden), and (b) once in office, that person It would clean up and reform the pro-democracy party — or take its place.

The chance of this happening is zero. Professional Democrats will kill the resisting left—as they often do—instead of giving up their power, their personal share of establishment wealth and status.

This leaves the system completely with nowhere to go, and the suffering masses — the non-ideological soccer mom and dad with three jobs, the gig masses who shower after get off work instead of before — have no way to hope for real change. They’ll insist Until they can’t, then join whatever rebellion already exists, the one you see now.

three results

That leaves only three outcomes, because the solution—real reform of a government owned by the rich—can only happen one way.

• The real left resistance succeeded, and the government and the Democrats really reformed.
• Resistance to the government failed, but not suppressed. This brings us back to the movement of the 60’s and 70’s, which was allowed to exist (no tanks on the street) until the end of the Vietnam War, the driving force of the movement. The modern movement, if anything, did not have such a clear goal to end it.
• Whoever is in government, nominally left or right, with the support of any left that does not resist the state, uses the state security apparatus as swords (and tanks in the streets if necessary) to repress. Slowly, the country became a Stalinist state — everyone crouched down — until the climate jackpot popped out of the box. Then all bets are off.

All three outcomes are possible. The first possibility is much smaller. The other two are 50-50 in my opinion. (A good example of the third option is Kazakhstan.)

Career Democrats are wrong

As evil as the Republicans are, it’s the fault of professional Democrats. We’d be in better shape if they weren’t so determined to ensure that the Left would never lead the revolt today.

But professional Democrats have ceded the leadership of the anti-wealth rebellion to the right, leading to its duality. As we stand today:

• Democrats are what people resist (status quo). Biden made it clear that Obama’s duplicity broke his promise.

• Republicans are on the side of lies and false solutions.

• No one represented the interests of the uprising itself, or the needs of those involved in it.

I haven’t seen the leaders on either side change their stance. So the chaos we’re seeing is coming, or already here.

no chinese century

Note: Lest anyone worry, there will be no “China Century”. The Chinese will face the exact same problems as us. They have two “granaries” about a thousand miles apart.

The ancient ones, next to Beijing, the earliest ones that gave birth to the Han civilization, will be submerged before 2100.

Just like the United States in the next few decades, China will also lose its territorial integrity.

Anything that any honorable person seeks to own in the next 50 years or so cannot be owned by anyone. If we get there, that world will disappear.

It’s just a small consolation, I know, but I do know those who think it’s comforting.