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The Fed’s Philadelphia branch president Patrick Harker said he would support more than three rate hikes this year if inflation soared, as he became the latest U.S. central banker to back a rate hike in March.
“I currently have three raises this year and I’m very open to starting in March,” Harker told the Financial Times. “I’m willing to take more if needed.”
The Fed officials’ comments came after December inflation data showed U.S. consumer prices rose 7 percent year-on-year for the first time since 1982 — a figure Harker described as “very high, very bad.”
Harker was one of several Fed officials who voiced support for “lift off” in March, along with other regional bank presidents including Kansas City’s Esther George, St. Louis’ James Bullard and Cleveland’s Loretta Mester.
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Harker, who will be a voting member of the Fed’s rate-setting committee next year, said the central bank has few tools to deal with supply chain problems fueling inflation, but it should act to dampen consumer demand.
“We don’t want to fully hit the brakes, but we do need to slow down some demand,” he said. “We can do something . . . by raising the federal funds rate.”
Harker said he would also support fewer rate hikes if “inflation actually starts to come down” as supply chain bottlenecks ease. But few independent economists predict lower inflation will prompt the Fed to take a more dovish approach.
Harker warned of “long-term problems” if the Fed allows price growth to hover well above its inflation target, which averages 2% over time.
“Ultimately, what we worry about is people starting to think, ‘Well, inflation is not going to be 2 percent, it’s going to be 2.5 percent or 3 percent in the future,'” he said.
Harker said the U.S. labor market has recovered sufficiently from the effects of the pandemic to conclude that the Fed’s maximum employment goal, one of two the central bank has set to determine when to raise interest rates, has been achieved. It has already exceeded the inflation target.
The Philadelphia Fed president also said he would support efforts to reduce the size of the Fed’s balance sheet relatively quickly. That balance sheet has ballooned to $9 trillion after hoarding bonds to avoid an economic collapse during the pandemic.
Harker suggested the Fed should act sooner than it did after the 2008-09 global financial crisis, when it waited two years to start divesting assets after raising rates for the first time since the crisis.
Harker said the Fed could begin a “run-off process” once rates are “sufficiently far” from zero, which could mean reducing its bond holdings as early as the end of the year.
“I really like the back-and-forth of how we’re going to do this, and then methodically communicate it,” he added.
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