China is set to release its estimates for fourth-quarter and full-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth on Monday, at a critical economic and political juncture as President Xi Jinping seeks an unprecedented third term as head of party, military and government .

The Politburo of the CPC Central Committee last month stressed the importance of stabilizing the economy and financial system real estate industry. But that does not indicate an intention to abandon the policies that have led Evergrande and other large developers to default.

Striking a balance between stability and fiscal discipline will test Xi’s economic team, led by Vice Premier Liu He, in the coming months.

Here are five things to look out for when launching.

Will the quarter-on-quarter growth rate be close to zero or more than 1%?

On a quarterly basis, China’s economy grew only 0.2% in the first and third quarters of last year and 1.2% in the second quarter.

The quarter-over-quarter data is a more accurate measure of the health of the economy compared to the same period last year, which fell and then recovered due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Full-year growth in 2021 should easily top the official target of 6%. But another low quarter-on-quarter figure will put pressure on Liu and the central bank, which he actually controls as chairman of the government’s Financial Stability and Development Committee, to do more to boost growth.

Does the outlook for the real estate industry continue to deteriorate or stabilize?

Home prices in China’s 70 largest cities fell 0.3 percent in November compared with October, the largest monthly decline in nearly six years.

This is in line with Xi Jinping’s promisecommon prosperity“To one of the most unequal distributions of wealth in the world. But if it falls too quickly, it could also have unintended economic consequences.”

The sector is estimated to account for more than a quarter of the economy’s total output. The woes in recent months were reflected in a slowdown in fixed-asset investment, which rose 5.2% year-on-year in the January-November period.

That was slower than expected and well below the 7.3% year-to-date in September, when it became clear that leverage restrictions on developers in 2020 could push Evergrande to default.

Is the party’s zero coronavirus strategy sustainable or is it about to inflict unacceptable costs to the economy?

China’s export sector has performed strongly since the coronavirus was effectively brought under control in the first half of 2020. Periodic blockades of key manufacturing areas and large ports to curb local clusters have not dented the already strong overall export growth.

But that could change, as the more contagious Omicron variant threatens to spark more lockdowns, and the housing downturn has dampened consumer sentiment. Retail sales rose just 3.9% year-on-year in November, well below consensus expectations for a 4.7% increase.

This week, the provincial capital of Xi’an, with a population of 13 million, and two smaller cities were in complete lockdown. Two other large cities, Tianjin and Shenzhen, are implementing partial lockdowns to facilitate city-wide testing.

However, the party is unlikely to relax its uncompromising stance on pandemic control until a party congress, likely in October or November, formally approves Xi’s third term.

China’s economy is under increasing pressure, will it lead to a stronger monetary policy response?

The People’s Bank of China cut its benchmark one-year loan prime rate for the first time since April 2020, but only by 5 basis points. It also didn’t change the five-year benchmark used to price mortgages.

The People’s Bank of China prefers to use targeted RRR cuts to direct credit to favoured sectors of the economy such as agriculture and high-tech manufacturing, rather than the “flood stimulus” that would undermine its efforts to control in recent years high debt levels.

Will China’s population peak come sooner than expected?

The Office for National Statistics is likely to publish its initial estimate of the country’s birth rate, or births per 1,000 people, for 2021. This fell from 10.5 the year before to 8.5 in 2020, the first time the ratio has fallen below 10.

In 2020, China’s birth population was 12 million, the lowest level in nearly 60 years.