The price of Bitcoin has fallen by 16% in the past 30 days. Since the crypto asset hit an all-time high (ATH) on November 10, 2021, Bitcoin has fallen by more than 38% since it exceeded $69,000 per unit that day. At the same time, crypto advocates are fiercely debating whether this is a Bitcoin bear market or a bull market that is still intact. For many observers, Bitcoin’s current market cycle is not complete because it has not formed a solid peak, and speculators still expect another bubble to emerge.

The four phases of the price cycle-Bitcoin traders debate the position of the cycle, traders insist that “the beginning of February will be a move”

Many digital currency traders focus on the top and bottom and the four phases of the market cycle. These stages include the accumulation stage, the upward trend stage, the distribution stage, and the downward trend or surrender stage.It can be said that the accumulation phase occurred 666 days ago on March 12, 2020, when Bitcoin Slide down 4000 USD per unit area. On that day in March, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that the world was responding to the Covid-19 epidemic, Call it a “pandemic.”

If you want to know why the bull market in this cycle looks a bit different from the previous ones. This is just the beginning. ? #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/q3X3z51x6X

— Bitwatch? (@TheBitwatch) January 3, 2022

On that day, also known as “Black Thursday,” the global market was turbulent, and the crypto economy lost billions of dollars in a short period of time, but the recovery and accumulation phase of the crypto economy began the next day.s price Bitcoin (BTC) Continue the upward trend and steadily enter the price increase stage Bitcoin In the end, it surpassed the all-time high of $20,000 in 2017. By January 7, 2021, BTC price hits $40,000 For the first time in history. In mid-May, BitcoinThe price entered the $66,000 area for the first time, and soon fell below the area.

The price of Bitcoin fell below the $40,000 area around September 21, 2021, with people claiming that the price has not yet reached its peak. They are correct because after 50 days, Bitcoin (BTC) Last November 10th, a lifetime price high of US$69,000 per unit was set. Nevertheless, cryptocurrency advocates believe that the bull market cycle is not over yet, and there may be another parabolic upward trend.Most Bitcoiners try to measure cycles by using the time between BitcoinHalving cycle.

In the first and second #Bitcoin The cycle was halved, and the price touched a linear 4.236 fib extension, and then found support near the linear 2.618 and moved higher.

In the third #Bitcoin During the halving cycle, the price touched a linear 4.236 fib extension and tried to find support near the linear 2.618. pic.twitter.com/7EbsaaXRAA

— TechDev (@TechDev_52) January 5, 2022

Usually, due to the scarcity of Bitcoin, the price rises before the reward is halved, and the next halving is expected 850 days from now On May 6, 2024.There are still more than two years, people wholeheartedly believe in the bull market that leads the bull market Bitcoin Up to $69,000 is still in play. Bitcoiners are still looking forward to a double bubble similar to 2013, where the price surpassed the $69,000 area and reached a higher peak.Crypto market expert Bobby Axelrod It is believed that in early February, observers will witness the next big move.

“Next, the next 60-day cycle begins,” Axelrod tweeted. “The beginning of February will be the general trend. The final position of the Bitcoin price after the next move should be the top of the IMO cycle. At least I will treat it like this.”

Encryption advocates expect bitcoin prices to rebound-“the price plunge means that the rise is coming”

Encryption supporter Colin, The host of the Youtube show “Colin Talks Crypto” believes that the market cycle has been lengthened. “Due to the apparent prolonged period of this bull market, I now think we are *more likely* to see a Bitcoin price of $300,000 instead of a Bitcoin price of just $100,000,” Youtuber Say January 5.On the same day, Colin Tweet:

I am very happy that the price of Bitcoin has plummeted-not because I like falling prices, but because it means a wave of upswing is coming. It’s like, “Let’s end this crash so we can enter more bullish territory!”

Many other encryption proponents feel the same way. Twitter account is called “evil smart bitcoin” wrote: “The ideal place to bounce IMO. Rekt. Everyone who wants $43,000 and everyone is short now (expected to fall to $40,000) will get a rekt. Chop everything. Don’t trade or use leverage. Just buy one. Two cycles of spot, self-custodial and HODL. Let the super-bitcoinization work.”

‘Mid-point vomiting’

Twitter account named @therationalroot Shared charts of all Bitcoin price cycles and historically high (ATH) price positions recorded during the cycle. “So far, the 2021 cycle has given us 32 blue points (ATH),” Bitcoin advocate Say“We have 72 in the 2017 cycle and 52 in the 2013 cycle. Let the 2022 fireworks begin.” Trader, entrepreneur and investor Bob Lucas described this cycle as ” Midpoint vomiting”. Lucas said:

On the 31st day of the Bitcoin cycle, the midpoint of vomiting. The overlay is the cycle from May 23 to July 20, 2021. I don’t like overlays, I won’t compromise them, but the conditions are similar. I think that $40,000 is always the more important level.More importantly early [February] timing.

Currently, Bitcoin’s logarithmic growth curve Three bull markets with extreme peaks are shown, but the current cycle looks incomplete and almost undecided. chart It shows that the price of Bitcoin has only fallen below the yellow low development line twice in the history, and the last time occurred on March 12, 2020 (Black Thursday).The end of the chart and the yellow low development line indicate BitcoinIf it keeps the power-law corridor model without bias, its price will not be less than $25,000.

It is safe to say that even most Bitcoin enthusiasts with the most advanced technical analysis skills are not sure about the direction of Bitcoin’s price. Tai Chan, The cryptocurrency traders, entrepreneurs and CEOs of the trading portal cryptocurrency.market said that people should wait until the bear market to buy altcoins.

“Bitcoin sells for less than $50,000 (laser eye price),” Zen tweeted. “We do not recommend buying any tokens in the middle of the bull market. However, if you have excess cash and are eager to enter cryptocurrency, then the only coin I will buy is Bitcoin [and] Nothing else,” Zen added.

What do you think of the current price cycle of Bitcoin? Please tell us your thoughts on this topic in the comments section below.

Jamie Redman

Jamie Redman is the head of news at Bitcoin.com News and a fintech reporter living in Florida. Since 2011, Redman has been an active member of the cryptocurrency community. He is passionate about Bitcoin, open source code and decentralized applications. Since September 2015, Redman has written more than 5,000 articles about destructive protocols emerging today for Bitcoin.com News.