In an unprecedented change, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Monthly Job Vacancies and Labor Flow Survey (JOLTS) in the same week as the monthly employment situation report.Given this new release schedule, I will talk about what we learned from this week’s JOLTS report, which provides data for the entire month of November (or the end of November, depending on the specific measures) as a preview week for the work Five is released because the reference week for the Friday numbers is not long after December 5-11This means that the rapid growth of Omicron in the United States will not affect the trend released on Friday, as the overall employment growth in 2021 is expected to be close to 7 million.

This JOLTS report November continued to show a high turnover rate in the labor market and strong net employment growth. The number of job vacancies dropped slightly, while the number of recruits increased, and the number of departures hit a series of new highs.The media has been concerned about the high turnover rate, but what is often missed in the report is that the workers who resigned have not withdrawn from the labor market, they are resigning Do other workThe number of recruits continues to exceed the number of departures, and the labor force continues to rise after a sharp decline in the spring of 2020. The workforce lost nearly 8 million workers in March and April 2020, and has since recovered about 70% of losses, including an increase of 1.8 million in the past nine months, when the resignation rate was so high.

Has attracted much attention throughout the recovery process Accommodation and catering services, Which suffered the most job losses when the pandemic hit, is now experiencing a record turnover rate. In November 2021, accommodation and catering services recorded nearly 1 million exits (920,000 people). But—this is the part that many commentators seem to be missing—the number of hires in the accommodation and food service industry exceeded the number of leavers in November by over 1 million (1,079,000).

It is worth noting that accommodation and catering services tend to have more losses than other industries. In particular, the turnover rate of the accommodation and food service industry has been higher than that of any other industry (since the survey began in 2000), and is the highest or second highest recruitment rate (after arts, entertainment and leisure). The high turnover rate of this industry is not surprising, because it is also the lowest paying industry in the major industries of the US economy, but the turnover rate is now much higher than ever before—— Increase Than any other department. This fact, coupled with the industry’s strong wage growth in 2021, means that workers are leaving their jobs to take up higher-paying jobs, and are likely to be in the same industry.

The figure below tells us about the loss of the labor market. Using the latest JOLTS data from November, the relationship between the hiring rate and turnover rate of major industries is drawn. The 45-degree line represents where the employment rate and turnover rate are equal. It is worth noting that all the data are above the 45-degree line, which means that the number of recruits in all departments exceeds the number of leavers. Therefore, despite the record number of turnovers, workers are not just leaving the workforce: most people are doing other jobs, usually in the same department.

The size of the sector bubble represents the average hourly wage of private sector workers in each sector: the smaller the bubble, the lower the wage. Accommodation and catering services-the lowest wages in all industries-are experiencing the highest turnover rate, that is, both turnover and hiring rates are high. Financial services — second only to the highest-wage information sector in average wages — experienced the least loss. Workers are not changing jobs at almost the same rate as the accommodation and food service industries. These high-paying industries may also have better benefits and working conditions, including safety and health standards.

The employment situation report-including data on wage employment and unemployment rates-also provides a promising picture of labor market conditions-before the surge of Omicron variants hit the United States. The average monthly employment growth rate for the first 11 months of 2021 is 555,000, if Initial expectation Achieved, the number of new jobs in the whole year may be close to 7 million.

The unemployment rate has also improved significantly throughout the year: from 6.7% at the end of 2020 to 4.2% in November 2021, and the labor force participation rate also rose slightly, from 61.5% at the end of 2020 to 61.8% in November. If the labor market continues to develop along this track, the unemployment rate will easily reach the pre-pandemic level by the end of 2022, and at the same time it will absorb most of the labor and population growth temporarily sidelined.

When the employment report is released on Friday, I expect the trend we have seen in the past few months to continue: the labor market quickly and steadily returns to health. The recovery in 2021 is much faster than the recovery in the past three recessions—more than twice the recovery in any 11-month period of the Great Recession recovery, when Pursue austerity Lead to unnecessary slow recovery.

The Biden administration’s US rescue plan promoted rapid growth in 2021, although its impact has significantly weakened in the past few months, with no additional economic impact payments, and enhanced insurance benefits due. However, by the end of 2021, the expanded child tax credit will certainly continue to play an important role in supporting families (for example, reducing undernourishment), as well as boosting economic recovery through increased spending (although it is inexcusably allowed by the end of 2021).

Given that fiscal stimulus is expected to be substantially reduced in 2022, even if the long-term investment promised in the much-needed “Rebuild Better Act” is realized, it is vital for Fed policymakers to allow the economy to continue to recover without such austerity measures. Raise interest rates. Although it will not affect the December trend released on Friday, the surge in Omicron variants may weaken the positive news in the January data released on February 4. It is hoped that this impact will shorten the impact of Delta on the labor market, and the labor market will continue to recover rapidly.

However, even if we restore the labor market conditions before the pandemic, it is important not to exaggerate the miracle of the labor market. Before the pandemic, the unemployment rate of black workers was higher than that of white workers today. There is a wide gap in wage levels and occupational segregation is rampant. It is difficult for parents to obtain high-quality childcare services, and millions of people live in poverty. We need to continue to invest in our physical and human capital infrastructure to restore growth faster and stronger.