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Today’s automotive market is full of various anomalies: delayed acquisition of semiconductors, supply chain chaos affecting mechanical parts,¹ Shortage of new cars Lead to rise price² For used cars. These headlines sometimes obscure more interesting trends that are emerging in the auto market.

When reading the informative New York Times column written by Peter Coy, I remembered this: “Why buying a used car is easier than ever. “Coy reminds us George Akeroff (Who’s winning 2001 Nobel Prize in Economics) “Diagnosing the problem correctly is Asymmetric information: The seller knows more than the buyer. Due to fear of blackmail, buyers will bid very low. “But things quickly started to get better because state law prohibits the rollback of the odometer and requires all accidents to be reported. Lemon method Helpful and helpful CarfaxBeginning in 1984, it also changed the rules of the game.

This is a pre-holiday thinking food for a self-proclaimed Autobot. Some potential trends are roughly arranged in the order of the current market size:

1. Car purchase: Thankfully, the days of new car salespersons pretending to talk to their managers when negotiating prices are coming to an end. One of Tesla’s great innovations is to simply post prices online and allow people to make purchases without dealing with salespeople.

Consumers like this.

We have also seen this appear in companies like this Cavana and Car biggest With their “no bargaining” sales policy or by purchasing online from a dealer and delivering it directly to your door. Saturn They may have failed as a brand, but they have been leading for decades without bargaining. The asymmetric information imbalance has turned towards consumers (at least it has become fairer). It’s best for dealers to adapt quickly or die.

The pandemic has changed the car purchase situation and may be permanent; expect future car purchases to be completely different from the past.

2. Used car market: Hyundai cars are well-equipped with safety features that were once expensive options. They have become very reliable, low-maintenance, well-equipped, and can be used in modern homes.

The same is true for cars from 3 to 7 years old. Buyers of second-hand cars no longer play potential lemon roulette, but instead buy sturdy vehicles with a longer lifespan.Better yet, this is Rear That huge devaluation of the new car has already happened. One of my favorite purchases is to identify an expensive and well-maintained car with a 36-month lease and buy it at half or less of the MSRP.This is especially effective for luxury brands, such as BMW and Porsche.

As the chaos of the supply chain becomes chaotic, the price of the used car market will eventually return to the average value. The current shortage of new cars should be resolved in the next 12 months, but this means that in the next 24 to 48 months, there will still be a shortage of used car stocks. With so many people discovering the benefits of buying a used car, the mean reversion may be shallower than expected.

3. electric car: (EV) is just a superior power transmission system compared to the internal combustion engine (ICE)-their shortcomings in exhaust can be compensated in many ways: they are not only cleaner, but also faster, smoother, more reliable and maintained The cost is lower.

No matter what area of ??anxiety you have, it should disappear quickly: SoberThe new car has a cruising range of more than 500 miles; Tesla Model S and Mercedes-Benz EQS More than 400 people; new technology promise 750 mile range.

The world is rapidly shifting to electric vehicles. By 2030, I expect that more than half of the new cars sold will be electric vehicles; the other half, many will be hybrids. This is the future.

4. Driving enthusiast: The possibility of things disappearing really makes people realize it at once.³ Maybe it’s because of the lockdown or just a little usability bias, but I can’t help but notice the surprising increase in young drivers’ enthusiasm for cars.This is the same as Fewer driver’s licenses We watch Among youth The rise of harmony Uber And (eventually) self-driving cars.

So many videos and YouTube channels— Most upscale/Big tour arrive Doug DeMuro arrive Harry’s garage — Demonstrate the strong global automotive culture.Meet and say hello Car and coffee blossom everywhere.

The car does not represent the freedom of today’s young people, as they did to our generation (in Springsteen’s Natural runner) But they did resonate with this generation on many levels.

5. Auction site: I have always been a fan of such sites With trailer or Car and tender For many years, auction purchases/sales were only started during the lock-in period. If I can’t pay attention to a car or test drive a car, then auction is the next best option. I have bought and sold several cars at prices that I think are reasonable, and I enjoy this experience. There are some risks here, and I do have some useful suggestions (0 may be a future blog post or column).

I expect that even after the market normalizes, these sites will still maintain most of the traffic, especially their core audience.

6. Collection: Let’s divide the field of collectible cars into specific groups:

A) Car boy, I fell in love with a certain amazing car when I was young—— Corvette or Camaro, Ferrari, Lamborghini, or Aston Martin – Finally reached the stage where they can buy unrequited nostalgic love.

B) DIYers, they are good at wrenches and OEM diagnostic tools Who will rebuild or repair or even make a complete Frame repair In the special car they have dreamed of for a long time;

C) Means enthusiasts, who freely buy and drive cars from different eras for pure pleasure. If this produces a return on investment, that’s great, but this is not their focus;

D) Pure speculators who look at cars in the way they look at real estate, bitcoin, art, or any other items that can be purchased today and resold at a higher price at a certain date in the future;

It is interesting how these buyers have changed over time as the automotive world changes-with the disappearance of the manual transmission and the end of the life of the internal combustion engine. Forecasts range from the collapse of the collectible car market to price explosions and everything in between.

7. Self-driving: Of all the aspects of the car, I suspect this is the most exaggerated aspect. Yes, it will come eventually: one day the steering wheel and pedals will disappear, and you will sit in your own sphere, transported by your own personal robotic vehicle. Maybe it will even become a drone to take you to your destination.

I suspect that this era will involve more traffic and move faster, but except for a few older generations, everyone will lose the fun of driving. They will keep their vehicles in normal operation and insist on driving on remote roads as much as possible.

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I? I just like driving…

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1. I have been trying to order a set of eight injectors for the Audi V8, each should cost about US$75, but currently my offer is close to US$400. This turned the 40,000-mile repair that originally required $1,200 and $600 in parts into a crash that required only $3,200 in parts. Fortunately, I have 12,000 miles before asking, so I can postpone this, but not everyone is so lucky.

2. In fact, high used car prices are a key component of record CPI inflation.

3. I suspect this may have happened in the cinema…

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