Two new British studies provide some early hints that the omicron variant of the coronavirus may be milder than the delta version.

Scientists emphasize that even if the results of these early studies are valid, any reduction in severity needs to be weighed against the fact that omicron spreads much faster than delta and is better able to evade vaccines. The sheer number of infections can still overwhelm hospitals.

Manuel Ascano Jr., a biochemist at Vanderbilt University who studies viruses, said that nonetheless, the new research released on Wednesday seems to support earlier research that omicron may not look like The delta variant is as harmful.

“Cautious optimism may be the best way to look at this issue,” he said.

An analysis by the COVID-19 Response Team at Imperial College London estimated the hospitalization risk of omicron cases in England, and found that people infected with this variant are 20% less likely to go to the hospital than people infected with the delta variant, 40 stay in the hospital for one night or The possibility of longer time decreases.

The analysis includes all COVID-19 cases confirmed by PCR testing in England in the first half of December, where the variant can be identified: 56,000 omicron and 269,000 delta.

A separate study conducted in Scotland by scientists and other experts at the University of Edinburgh showed that omicron has a two-thirds lower risk of hospitalization than delta. But the study pointed out that the nearly 24,000 omicron cases in Scotland were mainly young people between the ages of 20 and 39. Young people are much less likely to be severely ill with COVID-19.

The researchers wrote: “This national survey is one of the first to show that omicron is less likely to cause hospitalization for COVID-19 than delta.” The author writes that although these findings are early observations, “they are impressive. Encourage”.

The research results have not yet been reviewed by other experts, which is the gold standard for scientific research.

Ascano pointed out that these studies have limitations. For example, the results of the survey are specific to a certain point in time during the rapidly changing situation in the UK, while the situation in other countries may be different.

Matthew Binnick, director of clinical virology at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota, said that in the Scottish study, the proportion of young people in the omicron group was almost twice that of the delta group compared to the delta group, which “may lead to conclusions.” Less serious results caused by deviation omicron.”

Nonetheless, he said the data is interesting and suggests that omicron may cause less serious diseases. But he added: “It is important to emphasize that if the transmission rate of omicron is much higher than that of delta, although in most cases the condition is mild, the absolute number of people requiring hospitalization may still increase.”

Data from South Africa also suggests that omicron may be more moderate there. Salim Abdool Karim, a South African clinical infectious disease epidemiologist, said earlier this week that the admission rate for omicron is much lower than that for delta.

“Compared with the previous situation of close to 20%, our overall acceptance rate is around 2% to 4%,” he said. “Therefore, even though we have seen a lot of cases, there are very few admitted cases.”