A record 4.9% euro zone inflation puts pressure on the European Central Bank

A record 4.9% euro zone inflation puts pressure on the European Central Bank

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Eurozone inflation rose to 4.9% in November, a record high since the creation of the single currency more than 20 years ago, prompting policymakers and economists to warn that price pressures may last longer than expected.

Driven by soaring energy prices, Eurozone inflation-as measured by the harmonized consumer price index-exceeded the 4.5% average expected by economists surveyed by Reuters.Rising may put more pressure on the European Central Bank Reduce its monetary stimulus.

Some investors said that the European Central Bank seemed to be too relaxed about price increases. “This may be wishful thinking of the ECB President [Christine] Charles Hepworth, director of investment at GAM Investments, said that when Lagarde announced that price pressures would not get out of control-they were already out of control, and it was difficult to understand that this pressure would soon abate.

German consumer prices rose by 6%, the fastest increase in nearly 30 years, and it is causing political unrest.Germany’s incoming finance minister Christian Lindner wrote on Twitter on Tuesday “Inflation raises reasonable concerns”, adding: “In the case of currency devaluation, we will observe how it develops after the pandemic.”

The European Central Bank has stated that many one-time inflation reasons such as soaring energy prices, supply chain bottlenecks and the reversal of the German consumption tax cut will subside next year, in an attempt to calm the anxiety about rising prices.

Although the surge in coronavirus cases and the spread of new variants have brought more uncertainty to the economy, there are signs that ECB officials doubt whether inflation will fall as quickly as they thought.

In an interview with Les Echos published on Tuesday, the Deputy Governor of the European Central Bank, Luis de Guindos, stated: “By 2022, the bottleneck may last longer than expected.” There is a risk that inflation will not fall as quickly and as we predicted.”

Energy prices in November rose by 27.4% from the same period last year, which was the biggest driver of inflation in the group’s 19 countries. However, food, service and commodity prices are rising faster than the European Central Bank’s 2% target.

The European Central Bank’s core inflation rate, which monitors potential pressures, climbed to 2.6% from 2% a month ago, as it eliminated volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices.

Part of the reason for the increase in service prices is the reduction in the weight of package holidays in the official inflation basket to reflect the decline in tourism during the pandemic.

But Neville Hill, chief European economist at Credit Suisse, said: “This is the first evidence that inflationary pressures are expanding from factors attributable to supply bottlenecks and pandemics… Many people worry that some of the current strong momentum in inflation will prove to be lasting.”

Economists are trying to assess the impact on inflation Coronavirus cases hit a record high And spread Omicron variants in Europe.

Capital Macros Senior European Economist Jack Allen Reynolds said that due to falling oil prices, this variant may reduce overall inflation, but it may push up commodity prices by exacerbating the supply chain deadlock caused by the pandemic.

The European Central Bank will release a new inflation forecast on December 16, which is generally expected by the market Increase them Compared with the data released in September, it predicted that the annualized inflation rate in the euro zone would fall from 2.2% this year to 1.7% next year and 1.5% in 2023.



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