Will UK inflation reach its highest level in a decade?

Due to supply chain disruptions, rising energy prices and tight labor markets, the cost of consumer goods has risen sharply. It is expected that the UK inflation rate in October will reach the highest level in a decade.

A survey of economists by Refinitiv shows that consumer price growth will reach 3.9% in October, up from 3.1% in September. Nomura economist George Buckley said before the National Bureau of Statistics released its report on Wednesday that he expects the inflation rate to rise further to 4.5% in November and reach a peak of 5% in the spring of next year. In line with the expectations of the Bank of England.

After the spring, the Bank of England predicts that as the impact of rising oil and gas prices fades, commodity demand cools and the shortage of some raw materials eases, inflation will decline.

However, the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, stated that the “key” factor in judging the extent to which inflation is temporary, and thus the size and speed of the central bank’s response, is the evolution of the labor market after the end of the vacation plan. . September. Valentina Rome

Will U.S. retail sales accelerate into the holidays?

U.S. retail sales are expected to grow faster in October than last month, as the industry is preparing for the expected strong holiday while coping with supply chain bottlenecks and worker shortages.

Many Americans finished their Christmas shopping earlier this year, hoping to avoid out-of-stock warnings when the holidays approach. Coupled with the strong demand for Halloween items, Leave early May have boosted autumn sales.

According to a survey of economists conducted by Refinitiv before the release of monthly data on Tuesday, sales are expected to increase by 1.4% from the previous month, up from 0.7% in September.

The retail industry is struggling to meet the recovery demand, as port congestion and shortage of truck drivers have caused delays in the supply chain, increasing the prospect of difficult to find gifts.

Maher Rashid, an American economist at the Oxford Economics Institute, said that tighter inventories-especially clothing and accessories-pose the “biggest risk to holiday spending, because consumers may find fewer items available. And may shift consumption to services or withhold expenditure before their favorite items are purchased “in stock.” “

However, the National Retail Federation predicts that sales during the holidays will hit a record high. The trading group expects sales to grow 8.5% to 10.5% year-on-year after 2020 sales growth of 8.2%.

This will indicate that spending will remain flexible to cope with substantial economic growth Consumer price, Thanks in part to strong savings and the increase in household wealth driven by property values. Matthew Rocco

Will the central bank of Turkey face the risk of cutting interest rates again?

The background of the next meeting of the Turkish Monetary Policy Committee is not good. The annual inflation rate is about 20%. The lira has fallen by 25% this year and is now hovering on the brink of the symbolic threshold of 10 dollars to 10 dollars. Global inflation concerns have caused other advanced economies and emerging markets to either raise interest rates or hint that a rate hike is coming.

However, most analysts expect the central bank of Turkey to cut interest rates for the third consecutive month on Thursday. According to a Bloomberg survey of economists, the bank is facing heavy pressure from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who strongly opposes high interest rates, and may lower its benchmark interest rate by 1 percentage point to 15%. In a country that relies heavily on imported energy and commodities, this move may put further pressure on the lira and accelerate inflation.

Per Hammarlund, chief emerging market strategist at Swedbank SEB, said it is wise to suspend the easing cycle and allow inflation to fall before it resumes. But he expects the bank to cut interest rates anyway.He said that in that situation, “there is only one way [lira] Go, it’s even lower. He added: “The only question is how quickly it will weaken. “

The opposition is HSBC, which hinted that given the sharp depreciation of the lira in the past week, the central bank can choose to suspend the interest rate cut cycle. However, it added that it still believes that the central bank “can tolerate further weakness in the lira” and will continue to cut interest rates in December and beyond. Laura Pietel