In the past 7 days, Canada has averaged fewer than 500 new COVID-19 cases per day, fewer than 750 hospitalized patients, and only 366 in the intensive care unit.

Ontario is Canada’s largest province, with a population of close to 15 million, on record No new death Starting with COVID-19 on Wednesday, this is the first time in nine months.

“This is very remarkable,” said Dr. Zain Chagla, an infectious disease physician at the Hamilton Hospital of St. Joseph Health Care.

“This is without getting everyone vaccinated, so this is even more remarkable. The vaccine is working and they are doing what they should be doing.”

However, as more areas of the country reopen and there is no clear strategy to curb the spread of COVID-19, experts say that Canada is destined to repeat the mistakes of the past and fail to protect our most vulnerable people-now including unvaccinated Crowd.

The Delta variant “moved the goal post” in Canada

Said Dr. David Fisman, an epidemiologist at the Dalarana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto More contagious And maybe More deadly A variant of the coronavirus called delta significantly “moved the target” to eradicate COVID-19 in Canada.

He said: “A few months ago, my assumption was that Canada would basically end the pandemic in the summer because we will get so many vaccines,” he said, adding that people infected with delta are more likely to suffer from COVID Have serious consequences. -19.

“This makes herd immunity may be out of reach.”

So far, Canada has resisted another surge in COVID-19, mainly due to vaccination, but Fisman said that delta has increased Reproduction rate The virus ranges from approximately 2.4 to 6 to 8, which means that one person can usually transmit it to 6 to 8 other people.

Watch | Known information about delta variants and their differences:

The respiratory doctor broke down the known information about the delta variant of the coronavirus, including how it differs, how dangerous it is, and whether the vaccine can prevent it. 4:26

In addition to the increased infectivity, Fisman and co-author, Professor Ashleigh Tuite, an infectious disease epidemiologist and assistant professor at the University of Toronto’s Dalarana School of Public Health, New preprint researchNot yet peer-reviewed, this delta also increases the risk of hospitalization and death.

Fortunately, the vaccine is very resistant to these variants, and recently there have been Canadians Preprint research Regarding the effectiveness of the vaccine, it is also awaiting peer review, which shows that serious diseases from delta have a strong protective effect and echo the previous global data Israel and other countries.

“People who are vaccinated may get better. At most, they may look like they have a cold,” said Dr. Jeff Kwong, an epidemiologist and senior scientist at the Toronto Institute, co-author of the study. Clinical evaluation science.

“But people who have not been vaccinated may still be seriously ill due to the delta, and these people may have serious consequences, such as hospitalization or death.”

The challenge now lies in the millions of unvaccinated Canadians More susceptible to COVID-19 than ever -Although it is hoped that Canada can achieve 80% of our eligible population has been vaccinated.

“Unfortunately, this is not enough for a 90% effective vaccine,” Viessmann said. “You have these fragile places, you will face tremendous pressure, can not be locked again.”

Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer, Dr. Theresa Tam, urges unvaccinated Canadians to get vaccinated immediately before the arrival of the cold months to avoid a devastating fall wave similar to the one experienced by Canada last year.

“We must maintain the momentum,” she said at a press conference on Thursday. “As we move towards indoor autumn, the best goal to achieve is to obtain the highest possible vaccine coverage as soon as possible.”

But experts say that just encouraging unvaccinated Canadians to roll up their sleeves can only play a role, and keeping COVID levels at a low level requires targeted strategies.

Schools are the “easiest” to spread COVID-19

Children under the age of 12 are now the largest group of unvaccinated Canadians because they are not eligible for the vaccine. Experts say they should be the first group to be protected in the fall.

Raywat Deonandan, an epidemiologist and associate professor at the University of Ottawa, said: “Almost all epidemics will break out in the school population because this is a susceptible population.”

“Therefore, we must invest in ventilation, small classes, high-quality masks, and school symptom checks and rapid tests.”

A new study published by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention It was found that the simultaneous use of shelter and HEPA air filters can reduce the risk of exposure to COVID-19 in a classroom-like environment by up to 90%.

Fisman said that in addition to schools, the same precautions can also be used in other places where the risk of airborne transmission of the virus is high-including office buildings, restaurants and bars-where masks are intermittent and people have close contact indoors. .

“We really need to figure out how to make these places safe,” Viessmann said. “There are many vaccines, but with these variants, we will not let this kind of thing disappear as many of us hoped in the spring.”

The border is vulnerable to the “import” variant

Importing new and existing variants from countries around the world is another challenge for Canada’s ability to control COVID-19 in the future-especially in There is increasing pressure to reopen the U.S. border.

“We should look at border controls more closely,” Denandan said. “Even if we are under control in Canada, it is raging around the world. We don’t want to import cases.”

Fisman said that Canada’s borders are another key weakness in the future, as variants that have arrived in the country from abroad in the past have repeatedly appeared- Almost more than any other country in the world.

He said: “The vaccination rate in the United States is lower than ours – they may become a variant factory in the fall,” he added, adding that Canada needs to address its “vulnerabilities in the quarantine system.”

“We need to do better in monitoring and come up with smarter systems to properly isolate and track people as they cross the border.”

Fortunately, Canada is equipped with an extremely effective weapon against imported variants-vaccines-we only need to build a sufficiently large immune border wall.

Kwong said: “The problem is that with travel and the reopening of the border, there will also be potential infections.”

“But as long as people here are vaccinated, the virus has nowhere to go.”

COVID-19 is now an “unvaccinated disease”

There have been a lot of discussions The last unvaccinated Canadians This goal needs to be achieved due to hesitation or accessibility, but what few people talk about is that they are not a single homogeneous group-which makes them more difficult to locate.

Sabina Vohra-Miller, a pharmacologist and science communicator of the South Asia Health Network, said: “The problem is that the amount of work required to obtain the last 25% of the vaccine is more than the 75% before vaccination. Doubled.”.

“There are many different reasons why they are not vaccinated. So, we have to peel it off layer by layer, and each layer will take a very targeted and concentrated effort to reach them.”

Vohra-Miller said they may be elderly people living at home or chronically ill patients who cannot go to vaccination clinics, workers without paid sick leave, or people who are just hesitant but who would benefit from talking with a doctor.

In any case, Chagla said that COVID-19 is “now an unvaccinated disease” in Canada—a problem that cannot be solved by previous protection measures.

“Unfortunately, the current solution will not be to cover or maintain physical distance,” he said. “It will contain antibodies in your blood.”

Vaccine passport becomes a potential “carrot” in Canada

This is why experts say that Canada is at the most critical moment of its vaccine launch, which is the final stage, and we now need to go all out to prepare for emergencies.

Fisman said: “In a society like ours, we really need to use all the carrots and sticks available to encourage people to get vaccinated.”

“It really means talking about selective visits to things people like to do, such as concerts, such as restaurants, and there may be a different set of rules for vaccinated and unvaccinated people.”

Last month, Manitoba became the first province to announce the type of vaccine passport. Allow fully vaccinated passengers to skip quarantine If they show proof of vaccination.The federal government followed suit earlier this month All travelers to Canada.

Quebec may go further now Need a digital vaccine passport This will prohibit non-vaccinated people from using some non-essential services-such as gyms, team sports and theaters-as early as September.

Watch | What does the digital vaccination passport mean for Quebec:

The Minister of Health of Quebec announced on Thursday that Quebec may begin using digital vaccination passports as early as September to prohibit people who have not been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 from providing certain non-essential services. 2:04

“If anyone knows people who have not been vaccinated, please beg them, urge them, and do everything possible to convince them to get at least one dose of the vaccine,” Kwong said.

“It’s about finding people who haven’t received the first dose of the vaccine, whether it’s because they are nervous, feeling uncomfortable when getting the vaccine or being unable to get the vaccine-now is the time to actually start getting it.”

This is an excerpt from Second Opinion, a weekly review of health and medical science news, sent to Subscribers every Saturday morning.If you haven’t subscribed yet, you can click Here.