Fadi Hassan is a research assistant at the Economic Performance Center of the London School of Economics, and Andrea Presbitero is an associate professor of economics at Johns Hopkins University. In this guest post, they believe that after a year of shocks, they have put further pressure on this war-torn country and should reconsider the economic sanctions against Syria.

It’s been ten years since school started Syrian War. Its refugees have made international headlines, but how are the people staying in Syria? No, things have gotten worse in the past year.according to World Food Program, More than 12 million Syrians-60% of the total population-are suffering from food insecurity. Facing more and more difficulties, the vast majority of Syrian families are struggling to eat and even cut basic necessities to cope with the decline in purchasing power.

To give an example: In Syria, the cost of a kilogram of beef is now about a quarter of the average monthly salary of a civil servant. From a perspective, in Italy, this is equivalent to 700 Euros per kilogram. in England? 300 pounds per pound.Most necessities such as rice, sugar or fuel are In fact Allocation: The Syrian government guarantees the minimum quantity at a controlled price. Currently, one person receives one kilogram of rice per month, and each vehicle receives 25 liters of fuel per week. Larger quantities can be purchased on the free market, but for most people, this is unaffordable.

To start, combine Three negative shocks In the past year, the damage to the economy has exceeded even anyone’s expectations. For any country, such an impact is a disaster, and for Syria, it is a perfect storm.

This Caesar Act Is the first one. The Trump administration approved it in December 2019 and received the support of the European Union. Its direct impact was the sharp depreciation of the Syrian pound. In the following months, the Syrian pound depreciated by nearly 70% against the U.S. dollar. This triggered an inflationary spiral affecting food prices, which more than tripled in 2020.

In principle, sanctions should weaken the political regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, but because United Nations Emphasize that its impact will only exacerbate the humanitarian crisis. In particular, the Caesars Act imposes secondary sanctions, which means that they apply not only to American citizens or companies engaged in economic activities in a large number of areas of the Syrian economy, but also to any entity regardless of nationality. These sanctions have severely affected the local economy, especially in the fields of construction, energy and finance, hindering any possibility of reconstruction during this low-intensity conflict phase.

The second shock was Lebanon’s financial and economic crisisLebanon is a hub for international financial transactions in Syria. Many Syrian households and companies hold deposits there estimated to be worth billions of dollars—at least 20 billion dollars. according to Mr. Assad. As a result, Lebanon’s deposit freeze and capital controls have translated into Syria’s liquidity shock and exchange rate depreciation. In addition, the economic recession in Lebanon has led to a decline in demand for Syrian products and has hurt exports.Most importantly, the devastating explosion Beirut’s port Many important silos used to store bulk materials were destroyed in August 2020, affecting Syria’s food supply.

The third shock needs no introduction. The coronavirus has landed in Syria’s healthcare system, which has been weakened by the war. In the past 10 years, 70% of medical staff have fled the country Only half of the existing hospitals are still operating. Although this pandemic may turn into a true tragedy in Syria, international isolation and low internal mobility can help limit its spread. But the economic consequences are still high.according to United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian AffairsBecause of the loss of jobs abroad and lack of international travel, Syria’s foreign remittances have fallen by 50%, which actually hinders cash transfers.

Perhaps one of the most dangerous consequences of COVID-19 is that the international community has forgotten Syria.

Economic support, media attention, and political will to resolve the crisis are all missing, and recent measures are not enough to resolve the severity of the problem. In March, at the Fifth Brussels Conference on “Supporting the Future of Syria and the Region”, international donors committed to In 2021, it will be $4.4 billion (and an additional $2 billion in 2022 and beyond).This may sound a lot, but in one Joint Statement Before the meeting, several United Nations agencies announced the need for more than US$10 billion. In view of Syria’s urgent financing needs, the lack of sufficient external support may force the government to rely on currency financing, which may further push up prices and make food insecurity worse.

In order to overcome the humanitarian crisis and stabilize the free-falling economy, the current sanctions regime needs to be carefully reviewed.Unfortunately, the Biden administration seems unwilling to change Trump’s approach, and Recent speech The European Union’s High Commissioner for Foreign and Security Policy Jose Puborel announced to the European Parliament that “the sanctions will not end before the political transition begins, they will not be normalized, and they will not support reconstruction.”

In order to force foreign countries to carry out political changes, how much pressure should be exerted on the population is an old and unresolved question. However, the international community’s inaction in seeking a political solution to the crisis cannot be tolerated, and the catastrophic costs on the ground — and only getting worse — should not be forgotten.