Mexican voters will go to the polling station on June 6 to vote in the largest election in the country’s history. President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador hopes This election can support his left-wing Morena party.

The mid-term elections will determine the composition of the 500-seat House of Commons. In addition, there are more than 2,100 mayor and city councillor positions, as well as 30 state councillor seats and 15 governor positions.

Although Lopez Obrador will not vote, this game will determine whether Morena and his allies will retain the two-thirds majority of votes they need to make constitutional changes. And set a route for popular but polarized voters. The remaining term of the Mexican president is three years.

“This is the largest political redistribution event in Mexico’s history, and it will happen during the term of Lopez Obrador,” said Lorena Becerra, a political analyst and head of public opinion research at the Mexico City Reforma. .

“a big part [Lopez Obrador’s] His strength in the second half of his term will depend on the outcome of this mid-term election,” Becerra told Al Jazeera.

“Worse than three years ago”

Experts say that the country’s high crime rate, economic downturn, recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, and government corruption are the main issues that voters consider before the election. Since taking office in 2018, many people will also pay attention to AMLO’s record.

The president received 53% support in the general election, which changed the political status quo. Election that year, Riding a wave of dissatisfaction with Mexican traditional parties. AMLO referred to his plan as the country’s “fourth transformation”, promising to improve the lives of the poor, eradicate corruption and heal a country that was faltered by uncontrolled gang violence.

Since then, his supporters-most of the older and poorer people in Mexico-believe that he has raised the minimum wage, established scholarships for students and developed training programs for youth, and expanded the elderly and the disabled Benefits.

But in the past three years, observers have stated that the problems of Lopez Obrador’s campaign have not improved. The Mexican economy shrank by 8.5% last year, and more than 35,000 murders were reported in 2019 (AMLO’s first year in office), setting a new record. The homicide rate will hardly change in 2020, and the trend will continue in the first quarter of 2021.

The election itself has been plagued by violence.according to telecommunications Consulting firm, 88 politicians-including 34 candidates – Has been murdered since the beginning of the election season last September.

Friends mourned the death of Mayor candidate Alma Barragan, who was shot and killed during the election campaign in Morroleón, Guanajuato, on May 26 [Armando Solis/AP Photo]

The government of Lopez Obrador has also been widely accused of mishandling Coronavirus pandemic Refuse to allocate sufficient funds and resist public health Downtime According to data from Johns Hopkins University, and maintaining a low level of testing-making the country the fourth-highest number of deaths in the world.

“It’s hard to find anyone in Mexico who says they are better now than before the anti-money laundering organization came to power,” said Christopher Wilson, a global researcher at the Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute. -tank.

“The local situation is terrible, worse than it was three years ago.”

Popular support

Nevertheless, AMLO is still a popular leader.

This Latest polls Performance Six out of ten The Mexicans approve of the president. He is also a leading figure. He often appears on the daily news headlines of his favorite platform “mananera”. At his daily morning press conference, he pushes his ideas to competitors.

The head of the poll, Alejandro Moreno, said: “We have a polarized voter, one supports the president and his party, and the other not only supports traditional parties, but also opposes the president’s plans.” In the El Financiero newspaper.

“However, there is a third category of voters who are disappointed with the president and his party, but they are not willing to return to traditional parties-this is the market for Movimiento Ciudadano,” Moreno told Al Jazeera.

The latest national polls show that the President’s Morena party leads the House of Representatives with about 40% of the party’s party preferences. [Ginnette Riquelme/AP Photo]

Movimiento Ciudadano, the Citizen Movement Party, has been able to make some progress by positioning itself as a third party party, and has a turnout rate of 6%.

But the latest National opinion survey The Morena Party, which proposed the president, leads with approximately 40% of the House of Representatives seats. A recent survey for the Mexican newspaper El Universal estimated that Morena would win 228 seats in the House of Commons, lower than the current 253 seats. Seats.

Together with the 94 joint seats expected to be won by the party’s current allies, the Green Party and the Labour Party, this will give their “making history together” coalition a total of 322 seats-less than two-thirds of the required 334 seats majority .

Following them are the three traditional parties in Mexico, although they are ideologically opposed, and their former enemies have also formed an alliance called Va por Mexico.

The centrist organization, the Revolutionary Party (PRI), which had been in power for 71 years before 2000, now has a support rate of about 17%, while the right-wing National Action Party (PAN) has a support rate of 16%. The center-left Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) accounts for 5%.

Supporters of Andres Manuel López Obrador wait before the election rally in Ecatepec, Mexico [File: Moises Castillo/AP Photo]

‘Morena can only be obtained’

At the same time, Carlos Peterson, senior analyst at Eurasia Group Mexico, explained that the governor’s campaign will be the key to Lopez Obrador, because the governor controls the state budget. This will also give the president’s party a major advantage before the 2024 election.

Peterson told Al Jazeera that such gains would help “what Lopez Obrador wanted to do and relieve the pressure on him from the governor’s request for resources or opposition to his plan.” “Morena can only benefit from this election.”

Currently, Governor Morena controls 6 of Mexico’s 32 states, but in the 15 governor races voted on Sunday, the party manages only one: Baja California. According to recent polls, the party is in a leading position in at least seven states and is competitive in several other states. Some analysts predict that it may win as many as 11 victories.

According to recent polls, Morena has led at least seven governorship races and is expected to be competitive in several other states. [File: Marco Ugarte/AP Photo]

Moreno of El Financiero said that although Morena may fail in Querétaro, Baja California Sur and Chihuahua, it will be competitive in Michoacán, Sonora and Campeche.

But everyone’s eyes are on the House of Representatives. If Morena fails to get a majority, Lopez Obrador will be forced to negotiate with his rivals to pass legislation, and so far he has not shown the willingness to do so.

In his next plan, AMLO hopes to reform the national energy sector and complete the construction of a US$8.9 billion refinery in his hometown of Tabasco. Maya Train Project, And gradually expand pensions for people aged 65 and over in the next three years.

In order to fund this agenda, Lopez Obrador needs to obtain the approval of the country’s 2022 budget-a task for the country’s lower house.

“He has a lot of freedom so far,” Peterson said. “The election results will either restrain him or allow him to continue to do whatever he wants.”