The 2020s will determine whether we have the opportunity to avoid irreversible damage to the climate. However, for the UK, this is accompanied by other major challenges. Its response will also determine what happens to the people’s well-being. The cruel testimony of Dominic Cummings This week showed that its leadership’s ability to deliver is questionable.

It’s commendable that the Resolution Foundation and the Center for Economic Performance of the London School of Economics have just begun to Britain’s decisive decade. This is decisive because the country must work hard to cope with the recovery of Covid-19, the consequences of Brexit, the ongoing technological revolution and the transition to net zero greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, this is based on stagnant productivity, high inequality, rapid aging and high debt.

Only frivolous people would think that this will definitely be solved.Remember: in 1987, the Italians celebrated overtake, The year when their nominal income per capita exceeded that of the United Kingdom. But today, after two decades of stagnant real income, Italy is far behind. The gap with Germany has further widened. However, in the past decade, British productivity has also stagnated. If this situation cannot be reversed, the declining Britain will not only lose its prestige, but also its ability to give its people an improvement in living standards.

The report details the challenges and remaining issues. For example, after Covid-19, the high-street retail industry may suffer a permanent impact, which is a particularly important source of work for women. With Brexit, the impact of trade with EU countries is already obvious, and there is little chance that trade with other countries in the world will quickly (if any) offset these losses. In terms of technology, we must assume that changes in employment structure and competitive pressures are huge and continuous, and many companies are disappearing. Regarding net-zero transfers, the country must make significant investments before any gains from lower operating costs become apparent.

Then there is the terrible legacy. The low productivity growth rate reflects, among other things, weak investment and slow adoption of new technologies. The report stated: “In 2017, only 71 robots were installed per 10,000 manufacturing employees in the UK, compared with 309 in Germany and 631 in South Korea.” Mainly due to slow productivity growth, real household income increased from 22% in the 2000s. This dropped to 9% in the 2010s. Similarly, inequality soared in the 1980s and never reversed.As a result, “the British Gini coefficient [a measure of inequality] It is higher than all EU countries except Bulgaria, and ranks second in the G7.Britain also has a very large Regional inequality The increase in productivity has reduced the inequality of household income in regional distribution, and relies on transfers from London. The most competitive industry in London is the service industry, but it has been sacrificed lightly on the altar of Brexit. .

In view of this, the prime minister’s reckless boost is a luxury that the country simply cannot afford.Instead, what is needed is “Tell the truth ruthlessly“It was recommended by Keynes to the freshman IMF. As the report shows, the United Kingdom has some important assets, especially its language, first-class universities, a strong scientific foundation, and a largely non-corruptive politics. The government is still there. Developed”Make a growth plan“It has some welcome elements, including higher public investment, lifelong learning programs, a focus on innovation and science, and some decarbonization goals.

However, people have not yet realized the cost of Brexit or the obstacles to spreading prosperity more widely. It is not certain that the required money will be spent on skills. There are also big loopholes in the decarbonization plan. Probably the most important thing, not after a short and generous investment subsidy period, on how the Prime Minister intends to raise private investment, Significantly increase corporate tax. This will reduce the already low investment. Yes, we will get a “free port”. But these will prove to be zero-sum heads.

When we reviewed Covid-19, we saw one mistake after another, partly redeemed by a flash of inspiration: the vaccination plan. However, in this challenging situation, an inspiration will not be able to ensure economic development. This requires capable political and administrative institutions to establish supportive relationships with a vibrant private sector, and to carry out far-sighted policy formulation and resource mobilization. It needs to adopt policies rather than postures, and respect reality, not slogans. Is this feasible in the UK? Maybe. is it possible? Do not.

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