Since the beginning of the pandemic, the cost of raw materials used to make breakfast staples has soared, which has raised concerns that the widespread commodity boom may push up consumers’ global food prices.

According to transactions in the US futures market, the bulk contract prices of coffee, milk, sugar, wheat, oats and orange juice have increased by an average of 28% from 2019. Companies lock in supply or hedge their commodity cost exposure. For meat eaters, adding pork to the list will increase the average price to 32%.

Analysts said that the cost of raw materials only accounts for a part of the total price of a supermarket or restaurant product, but the sharp increase in cost is likely to be passed on to consumers.

In the past few months, many food companies including Nestlé Switzerland and Unilever Anglo-Dutch have announced Price increased As the cost of raw materials rises. Rising food prices have become a political concern in some developing countries such as Ethiopia and Nigeria, and they are also rising in consumer prices in advanced economies.

“Food inflation is real in many places. It will not disappear anytime soon,” said Abdolreza Abbassian, senior economist at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. In April, FAO Food price index -Track a variety of products-to reach the highest level in a decade.

Strong demand from China, grain stocks by governments since the outbreak of Covid-19, and dry weather in major exporting countries have all contributed to rising agricultural prices.

Since the beginning of last year, wheat prices have risen by 16%, while corn prices have risen by more than 60%. The rise in corn was driven by Chinese buyers, which in turn pushed up the prices of other grains, including wheat.

Rabobank analyst Carlos Mera said that at the beginning of the pandemic last year, the competition for inventory had weakened, but “demand for inventory is still strong.”

The price of butter has also risen.Global export price The European Commission said that in the past year, this number has increased by more than one-third.

For countries that import large amounts of food (such as Egypt and Pakistan), the sharp increase in transportation costs has increased the price of ingredients.The Baltic Dry Index is the benchmark for bulk transportation costs and has reached More than ten yearsSoaring against the backdrop of a surge in commodity demand and bottlenecks caused by the pandemic.

Delivery delays have made the supply of coffee beans more tight, thereby increasing the cost of roasters and coffee shops. Arabica coffee futures prices are at their highest level in more than four years, and the drought in Brazil has further compressed the supply of the world’s largest producer.

In the past 18 months, milk futures prices have been fluctuating. Currently, they are 12% higher than the 2019 average. John Lancaster of StoneX, a commodity broker, pointed out that China’s demand for dairy products has been very strong over the past year.Fonterra of New Zealand is the world’s largest exporter of dairy products, he said Earlier this week Milk prices may reach record levels next year.

Since the beginning of 2020, the early inventory backlog of the pandemic has increased sugar futures prices by 25%, while orange juice futures prices have increased by one-fifth during the same period.

Higher vegetable oil prices are also likely to make fried breakfast foods more expensive. Since the beginning of last year, soybean oil futures prices have risen by nearly 90%, while soybean prices have risen by nearly 60%.

In developing countries, the degree of food processing is low, and the proportion of edible disposable income in total income is often higher, so there will be more feelings of rising prices of agricultural products. For people living in extreme poverty, this will be the most serious. 90m According to data from the World Bank, the population during the pandemic has risen sharply for the first time in the past two decades.

“For developing countries, this is more sensitive, because in addition to getting food, you may have lost your job…[and]There is no safety net in the West,” Abbasan explained. Where there is a weak government, “this will become a political issue.”

In the past 18 months, the futures price of white corn (polished porridge used in many parts of Africa) used on the South African exchange has risen by 16%. Rice is the main ingredient of porridge and can be eaten in many countries in Asia. The futures price of rice has risen by more than one-third.

“My biggest worry is not eating breakfast today, but eating breakfast tomorrow,” Abbasni said.