When China imposed punitive tariffs on Australian barley imports last year, grain growers worried that this would weaken an industry worth 2 billion Australian dollars.

But twelve months later Beijing shot In the trade dispute with Canberra, growers limited damage by opening new markets in Asia and Latin America.

“It is disappointing that we participated in the competition for political purposes and we lost the premium we received from selling products to China,” said Mic Fels, a farmer in Esperance, Western Australia.

“But Australian barley growers are still doing well because the global market has rebounded as we impose tariffs and we find new markets.”

The experience of barley growers has been replicated in other industries, and analysts believe that this is an “economic coercion” campaign launched by Beijing against Canberra. Since Australia resisted the rise of Chinese aggression in Asia and called for an international investigation into the origin of the coronavirus pandemic, diplomatic relations have begun to deteriorate.

Coal, beef, wineThe exports of timber, cotton and seafood all face strict tariffs or technical barriers, which have disrupted the trade pattern and may reverse the 10-year-old China-Australia trade boom.

Goods sold to China account for more than one-third of Australia’s exports, which makes Beijing the largest trading partner of Australia, with bilateral trade volume of 252 billion Australian dollars in 2019. With few signs of thawing relations between the two countries, exporters are scrambling to open up. Market and diversification.

Their efforts seem to be paying off, as the overall impact on bilateral trade remains weak. By 2020, Australia’s merchandise exports will fall by 2% from 2019 to 145 billion Australian dollars.

Covid-19, record Iron ore price, Changes in global market demand and exchange rate fluctuations make it difficult to assess the exact impact of these measures. But analysts believe that the trade diversion is weakening Beijing’s ability to strengthen Canberra’s armed forces and hitting the Chinese economy.

Roland Rajah, an economist at the Lowy Institute, a Sydney think tank, said: “Beijing’s bark is worse than its bite at the moment.” “In areas hit by sanctions, right? China’s exports have collapsed, but most of this trade loss seems to have found other markets.”

he estimate The value of exports to China facing tariffs from Beijing has fallen by approximately A$11.7 billion (US$9 billion) each year. However, according to the analysis of trade statistics, the export value of these commodities to the rest of the world has increased by A$13.4 billion.

Rajah gave the example of coal, which is the most valuable commodity hit by technical barriers. Since the implementation of port restrictions in September 2020, the annual value of Australia’s exports to China has fallen by A$6.5 billion, while exports to the rest of the world have increased by A$9.1 billion.

According to cargo tracking data from global shipbroker Braemar ACM, between October 1, 2020 and the end of April 2021, total coal exports fell by 7.6% to 205.4 million tons. Strong growth in exports to India, Europe and Latin America helped to make up for the losses in the Chinese market.

Abhinav Gupta of Braemar ACM said: “Australian exporters have done a good job of transporting coal to markets outside of China, while China has imported more coal from places like Indonesia, Russia, Mongolia and South Africa.”

Beijing’s move to switch to a new coal supplier is hurting Australian producers, once Australian producers lose the premium paid by Chinese customers. But it also hurts Chinese generators and steel manufacturers, especially because Australian coal generally has better environmental quality than rival coal.

Mark Melatos of the University of Sydney said: “China bears the cost from the trade diversion policy because it does not buy products from the most efficient customers, nor does it obtain high-quality products.”

Since China proposed an 80% tariff in anti-dumping investigations in May 2020, Australian barley exporters have also turned to new markets.

“We have started [anti-dumping] The investigation, although it has to be conducted remotely due to Covid-19,” said Jason Craig of the CBH Group of the Grain Growers Cooperative.

CBH reopened the Saudi Arabian market last year and sent the first shipment to Mexico, which alleviated the blow caused by the Chinese losers.However, these new markets did not pay High quality The actions of Chinese buyers have caused about 400 million Australian dollars in losses to the entire industry.

Not all departments can work so effectively.When Chinese customs officials left 2 million Australian dollars Australian Lobster For safety reasons, they rotted at Shanghai Airport in November, and a fresh export industry with an annual output value of 750 million Australian dollars fell into chaos.

Matt Taylor, chief executive of the Western Australian Rock Lobster Council, said: “The biggest difference is that the Chinese people pay twice as much for live lobsters as in other markets.”

The industry has moved lobsters to South Korea, the United States and Australia as a whole, but opening up new markets during the pandemic has always been a challenge.

Similarly, the Australian wine industry Hammering According to China’s 218% tariff, the export value fell 96% year-on-year from December to March to only 12 million Australian dollars.

Jeffrey Wilson of the Perth American Asia Center, a think tank, said: “Lobster, wine and now table grapes have been hit hard because China is the only practical market that meets the export volume of Australian producers.”

But he added that the increase in commodity prices over the past year has helped producers adapt to the loss of insurance premiums paid by Chinese customers.

“We did not see the termination of Australian exports, but saw the global market realigning around the ban. Even if the prices are slightly lower, there will always be a market for almost all Australian exports.”