According to high-frequency data indicators, the Eurozone economy has begun to recover from the coronavirus pandemic, which provides early evidence that the Eurozone will recover from its strong rebound in the second quarter. Double-dip recession.

The increase in the number of job advertisements, the increase in the number of trips to entertainment and leisure venues, and the increase in holiday bookings all indicate that economic activity is increasing. Rebound Although continuing to control the spread of the virus is restricted.

Angel Talavera, an economist at the Oxford Economics Institute, said: “Based on several high-frequency indicators, the euro zone’s recovery has begun.” He predicts that in the three months to June, the euro The district’s gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 1.5% month-on-month.

The Eurozone fell into a double-dip recession in the first quarter of this year, and its gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 0.6%. In contrast, U.S. Report The first quarter increased by 1.6% compared with the previous three months. China Announce An increase of 0.6%.

ING Bank economist Bert Colijn said that although the euro zone’s recovery may have been slow so far, “the signs in the coming months seem to be very positive”. He said that as restrictions began to relax, activities were increasing sharply, “showing that voluntary social distancing is much smaller compared to the first wave of the virus.”

Alternative data has become Widespread concern Since the beginning of the pandemic, although they are not as comprehensive and reliable as official data, they have provided a more timely measure of activity.

According to data from the employment website Indeed, the number of job vacancies in all major Eurozone economies is increasing.

At the same time, there are early signs that consumers are increasingly willing to spend money.

According to data from Google Mobility, retail and entertainment centers are attracting more visitors. According to fable data tracking bank transactions, in the week ending May 9th, consumer spending in Germany was only 3% lower than in the same period in 2019.

Ana Boata, an economist at the financial services company Euler Hermes, said she expects consumers to spend part of their savings during the ban. The impact can be huge: she estimates that this year will spend more than 1.5% of the euro zone’s GDP on excess savings.

She said that “there are signs that the recovery will begin in May,” and it is expected that as the country further opens up, there will be “significant catch-up growth” in June and July.

In most euro zone countries, the Covid-19 infection rate is falling and the number of vaccinations is rising, so it is expected that restrictions will be lifted in many places in the coming weeks.

Europe’s hard-hit tourism industry is also showing signs of improvement. According to data from the rental data company AirdDNA, in the week ending May 15, bookings on the Airbnb and Vrbo sites fell by only 4% compared to the same week in 2019.

Rental data company Transparent said broader metrics, including the Booking.com website, are also rising this month. SameWeb, a company that tracks web visits, said visits to leading travel-related websites are on the rise.

However, the road to recovery is still long: According to data from the hotel consulting company STR, in the next 90 days, hotel occupancy rates in many euro zone countries are below 10%.

Overall, the OECD’s weekly economic tracking device Recently, the economic performance of several Eurozone countries has been recorded as an increase.

The manufacturing industry has supported the Eurozone economy in recent months, but it has remained resilient under the support of rising global demand. By early May, the mileage index of German trucks (which can be used as an indicator of industrial production) had greatly exceeded the pre-pandemic level.

According to a survey conducted by the heads of 60 companies at the European Industrial Roundtable, Europe’s leading industrialists have greatly increased their confidence in the economic prospects compared to six months ago.

“European CEOs and chairs see the light at the end of the tunnel,” said Martin Brudermüller, Chairman of BASF and head of the ERT Competition Committee.

However, the performance after the second quarter is still worthy of discussion. Silvia Ardagna, a European economist at Barclays, warned that in the presence of high uncertainty about new virus variants, after the recovery phase after the reduction in government stimulus measures , The growth “severely slowed down.”

Bruder Muller said: “Although a rapid recovery is expected, we should not underestimate the risks… In the long run, the Covid pandemic will have complex effects on business operations and consumer behavior.”

Other reports by Peggy Hollinger