Although Benjamin Netanyahu is still in power to this day, allegations of corruption and his repeated failure to establish a stable and reliable coalition government seem to herald the end of his rule.

However, analysts say that the new outbreak of conflict with the Palestinians may open another path for Netanyahu and his quest to continue as Israel’s longest serving prime minister.

The Israeli leader and its Likud party failed to form a ruling coalition, and President Rouven Rivlin took on the task Opposition leader Yair Lapid (Yair Lapid) Form your own government

Micheline Ishay, director of the Human Rights Program at the University of Denver, said that even before the election, Netanyahu lost the support of the Israeli people for various reasons.

Netanyahu’s popularity has declined, and the people are tired of the uncertainty of the election. The number of seats in the Likud Group will be reduced from 36 in March 2020 to 30 in March 2021. “Netanyahu’s tireless efforts to avoid prosecution, the division of right-wing parties and the ongoing epidemic have led to widespread divisions.”

She added that the conflict with the Palestinians has reduced public dissatisfaction with Netanyahu.

“Due to the escalation of the situation in Gaza, his reputation will undoubtedly rise among some citizens. In the fires and wars, people tend to gather in the current government, worrying about rockets and internal threats. In this sense, the current The crisis is strengthening Netanyahu’s political design.”

“Planned Forfeiture”

Despite this, Yishai said that despite the obvious connection to violence against the Palestinians, she does not believe that Netanyahu supports the conflict out of political considerations.

“Netanyahu incites domestic provocations by even allowing domestic provocations. Cahanists In Jerusalem, planned confiscation of Arab property Sheikh Jarrah, The fence of Damascus Gate during Ramadan and Aksa Police Operation.

“However, it is not clear whether he will anticipate Hamas’ response, let alone hope. Regardless of the intentions, the war will benefit Hamas and the Likud region at least in the short term.”

But it’s not just the public that believes that in the past few days, the conflict may have shifted to Netanyahu’s preference.

First, as Yesh Atid hoped, the broad coalition against Netanyahu has become more uncertain than ever Naftali Bennett Said that his Arminian party would stop the talks with Rapide and instead seek a broader unified government with Netanyahu and Likud. Bennett believes that this is in the country’s interest in times of crisis.

The sudden reconciliation between Netanyahu and Bennett may be surprising, but it makes sense politically.

Yishai said, after all, both Netanyahu and Bennett have an ideology. They both advocate the unilateral annexation of parts of the West Bank, but its influence is beneficial to the prime minister.

Ishay said: “By prioritizing his own awareness of the threat of a country with political differences with Netanyahu, Bennett can revive the Likud alliance and greatly weaken any anti-Netanyahu group.”

However, Bennett is also aware of the impact of the current crisis on the negotiations, and the negotiations have developed to such an extent that the ministerial position is already in “Replacement group“.

In order to obtain the necessary majority, the coalition needs to include the votes of Palestinian citizens of Israel in the Knesset. In view of the turmoil between Israeli Jews and Israeli Palestinian citizens, this situation is unthinkable. Both Arab parties are in a position where they cannot support the Israeli government, which includes right-wing forces.

The main example is Mansour AbbasThe leader of the United Arab Emirates (UAL), he agreed to support the Lapid and Bennett governments. However, considering the armed conflict in Gaza, UAL withdrew from the joint negotiations.

Yishai pointed out that Bennett’s call for the deployment of Israeli troops in areas where Palestinians live in Israel prevented the United Arab List (also known as Ram) from supporting this policy.

“Bennet clearly suggested that the Israeli Defense Forces’ actions in the Gaza Strip and police enforcement of the Palestinian unrest cannot be guided by governments including the United Arab List. This shows that Arab Israelis can never become a government unless in peacetime. Part of it,” she said.

“Strategic Importance”

Ian Lustick, dean of the Department of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania, told Al Jazeera that Bennett’s move could become a key issue for Netanyahu’s progress.

“Although it is possible to envisage a Likud-Bennet government supported by Ram, I think this is extremely unlikely. However, the strategic importance of Arab parties in the alliance negotiations still exists.”

“Although Netanyahu may want to directly elect the prime minister, depending on how the election is organized, it may also give the joint list and Lahm the bargaining power over whether to run for prime minister or unite as one group.”

Lustick said that at the same time, Bennett’s decision to resume talks with Netanyahu may help Likud move forward, and it may come at a price for Bennett.

“This opens up the possibility for Likud to absorb elements from Bennett’s Yamina, and these elements are ready to abandon him if he insists on Rapide. Even if Bennett is in the future Netanyahu government In a prestigious position, his political reputation for independence and integrity will also be severely hit.”

At the same time, Lapid was unwilling to succumb to desperate situations.

“Bennett was wrong,” said Rapide, who promised to turn all the stones into a government without Netanyahu. He added that it is not worthwhile to cooperate with those responsible for the current situation. But his determination is unlikely to make a difference.

“The fragile unity is destroyed”

Lucek said that for Netanyahu, the conflict in Gaza provided him with another opportunity.

Netanyahu is on the verge of losing his position as prime minister by an unlikely coalition. However, this crisis was partly caused by Israel’s deliberate and highly provocative actions in Jerusalem, which undermined the fragile unity of the alliance. “

Although Netanyahu does not have his own majority in Bennett, and at least does not have an Arab political party, in fact, Bennett’s betrayal has led to a situation where it is impossible to establish a government against the current prime minister. Lustic said this makes it more likely that the fifth election will be held in the fall.

“Although Bennett betrayed Netanyahu and could not produce a new Likud-led government, it may lead to new elections.”

During an Israeli air strike in Gaza City, smoke and flames rose above the buildings [Mohammed Salem/Reuters]

Indeed, both Ishay and Lustick agreed to the idea of ??holding the fifth election in two and a half years.

“At this juncture, the fifth election is still inevitable. The Likud may form a short-term alliance, but after this round of violence, their political power will eventually decrease.”

“On the other hand, the anti-Netanyahu group has no other issues in common except for the removal of the current leader to maintain the new alliance. It can only hope that the flu pandemic, repeated elections and the current war will ultimately promote peace negotiations. A government that is willing to seriously resolve the Palestinian issue will have greater endurance.”

“Dynamic Situation”

Lustick shared this assessment.

“If Lapid fails, then the Knesset itself will have a chance to form a government. That will almost certainly fail.”

However, he also admitted that the situation has become more unpredictable.

“The question is what kind of elections will be held: Knesset elections, prime minister elections, or both? The uncertainties and complex calculations associated with the dynamic situation we are entering, and the relative Arab participation in coalition negotiations Newer phenomena offer interesting and unpredictable possibilities for the consequences of these elections,” Lustick said.

However, the impact of the conflict is more far-reaching. Whether they vote or not, the Palestinians from the river to the sea are part of the Israeli political system.

He said: “Whether it is through voting, joint bargaining, political mobilization, protest or violence, their impact on the system will become greater and greater.”

Whether Netanyahu is willing to achieve his goals, whether he likes it or not, must take this dynamic into consideration.

Analysts say that at the same time, whether it is now or in the fifth election that a new coalition can be promoted, the prospects for Netanyahu as prime minister are definitely increasing.