The Phillies have a good start to the 2021 season, but not spectacular. If only the home game is counted, then maybe it’s spectacular. Philadelphia entered Friday’s game in second place in the NL East on the 20-18, 1.5 games behind the Mets.

So far this year, it is difficult for this Phillies to miss a trend, which is their obvious home/point. At Citizens Bank Park, their record was an impressive 13-6, but on the trip it was a poor 7-12. Even in the most recent series, Washington has a 7-12 record with two-thirds.

So, what’s the use? Let’s dive in and try to find out…

It’s not new

For starters, this is not a completely new phenomenon. Last year and the year before, we saw similar patterns. In the brief 2020 campaign, the Phillies are 19-13 years old at home but 9-19 years old in away games. If their ability on the highway is slightly stronger, then they will enter the playoffs.

In 2019, this was their last full season, and the Phillies defeated 36-45 on the road 45-36 at home. At this point, this is a fairly large sample size, so it is difficult to write off it in the form of fling. It can be said with certainty that this is the real thing, the only question is what caused it?

This is the most important thing

When looking at the split, it is clear that the lineup should not bear most of the responsibility. The team’s average hits at home and on the road are almost the same (within 0.002), and there is only one home run at home. OPS is not far from home, but it’s no big deal.

On the other hand, the pitching action tells a different story. At home, the employee’s comprehensive ERA is 3.56. During the journey, it quickly swelled to 4.79. And oThe corresponding OPS ranges from .671 to .786.

Surprisingly, this is not the bullpen’s fault either. Instead, almost all of the initial rotation collapsed on the road.

Aaron Nola’s ERA is 1.40 odds in four domestic games. In the game, the odds of three-quarters are 6.14. Zach Eflin’s ERA has a starting number of 2.08 in four domestic games, and his scoring rate in four games on the road is 5.68. you understood. The worrying thing is that this seems to be a legitimate model, at least for Nola.

Nora’s home/road ERA in 2020 and 2019 are 2.50/4.26 and 2.91/5.19, respectively. This is the third consecutive year that Nora has made a big difference on the road.If the Phillies want to make the playoffs and reach their potential MLB World Series Featured, They will need their own aces to win some big matches against the stadium.

Potential betting angle

The question we all want to know is how to combine these trends to form some The best choice for Major League Baseball. It seems obvious at this point that the pitcher is much more comfortable at home than on the road.

Therefore, betting on certain overtakings on the road should have forward value. Especially when specific characters like Nola and Eflin are pitching. The odds maker did not take into account the seemingly real performance degradation, nor did it account for the trend of higher scores in the game.

On the contrary, the Phillies have performed well at home for several years in a row.If i want Major League Baseball Forecast, I hope to use money to support them and move forward in certain places in the house. When Nola or Eflin pitches at home, the roof of the team is really high, so when those people are on the hills of South Philly, I will bet on them on the game line, In order to get juicy odds.

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